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2019年06月16日 19:11:12 | 作者:飞排名免费答 | 来源:新华社
What were they thinking? It is extraordinary to a succession of official reports arguing, rightly, that a vote to leave the EU would impose long-term damage and a short-term shock. What sort of government would run such a risk, particularly when the economy has barely recovered from the financial crisis of less than a decade ago? The answer is one that has put the needs of short-term party management above its responsibility for the country’s welfare. David Cameron, prime minister, might soon be known as the man who left the UK in far-from-splendid isolation.他们在想什么?看着一系列的官方报告正确说明退出欧盟将对英国造成长期损害及短期冲击,令人感到非同寻常。什么样的政府甘冒公投的风险——特别是在经济刚刚从不到10年前的金融危机中复苏之际?是,一个把短期政党管理需要置于对国民福利的责任之上的政府。英国首相戴#8226;卡梅David Cameron)或许很快就会因使英国陷入不光的孤立而闻名。The Treasury has aly argued that leaving the EU might lower real gross domestic product by between 3.4 and 9.5 per cent in the long term. This is broadly in line with estimates from other reputable forecasters. Patrick Minford of Cardiff University, a proponent of leaving, argues that the UK would enjoy a jump of 4 per cent in aggregate economic welfare after leaving the EU and adopting free trade (an unlikely choice). But this result is an outlier. It rests on implausible assumptions, not least on the impact of EU non-tariff barriers on domestic prices.英国财政部已表示,长远来看,退出欧盟或将使英国实际国内生产总GDP)下降3.4%.5%。这大致与其他受尊敬的预测者的估计相符。而持退欧的卡迪夫大Cardiff University)的帕特里#8226;明福Patrick Minford)则表示,退出欧盟并实行自由贸易(一个不大可能的选择)后,英国的总经济福利将激%。但这种结果是一种例外。其依据的是不合实际的假设,尤其是在欧盟非关税壁垒对国内物价的影响方面。The Treasury has now followed up with a report on the short-term consequences of a vote to leave. In summarising the results, George Osborne, the chancellor of the exchequer, has stated that the UK would suffer a “do-it-yourselfrecession if it decided to leave. One might better call it a “do-it-himselfrecession. For it was the government’s decision to take this risk.财政部现已就退欧的短期后果发布了新的报告。在总结这些后果时,财政大臣乔治#8226;奥斯George Osborne)表示,如果决定退欧的话,英国将遭受“自身造成的”衰退。人们或许会更形象地称之为“他自身造成的”衰退。因为是英国政府决定冒这种风险的。The new report’s main scenario predicts that GDP would be 3.6 per cent lower after two years than if the UK voted to remain, unemployment would be 520,000 higher and the pound would be 12 per cent lower. Under a worse scenario, GDP could be 6 per cent lower, unemployment 820,000 higher and sterling 15 per cent lower. The Institute for Fiscal Studies adds that, instead of an improvement of bn a year in the fiscal position, as the net contribution to the EU fell, the budget deficit might be between 0bn and 0bn higher in 2019-20 than otherwise, sharply slowing the planned fiscal consolidation.这份新报告在设想的主要情景中预测,比起留在欧盟,退欧两年后英国GDP将下.6%,失业人数将多出52万人,英镑将下跌12%。在更糟糕的情景下,GDP可能下降6%,失业人数多2万,英镑下跌15%。伦敦财政研究所(Institute for Fiscal Studies)补充表示,财政状况不但不会因省下向欧盟付的预算摊派款而得到每0亿英镑的改善019-20年的预算赤字还可能比留在欧盟高出200亿至400亿英镑,极大地拖累规划中的财政整固。Indeed, the Treasury argues, plausibly, that the very possibility of a vote to leave is aly having an impact on the economy. But an actual vote to do so in June’s referendum would crystallise this risk and create significant and immediate effects, via three channels.实际上,财政部似乎颇有道理地指出,退欧的可能性本身已对经济造成了影响。但假如6月公投结果真的持退欧的话,这种风险将变为现实,并且立即在三方面产生重大影响。The first of these would be the tendency of households and businesses to adjust at once to becoming permanently poorer. This would lead to significant cuts in consumption and investment.第一个影响将是,家庭、企业会立刻作出调整以适应长期变穷的状态。这将导致消费与投资的大幅缩减。The second effect would come from prolonged uncertainty about how the UK’s relations with the EU would work out. It is difficult to exaggerate the scale of this uncertainty. After a vote to leave, the country would not know the complexion of its new government, the UK’s desired approach to renegotiation of its relations with the EU, or the response of the other members, let alone any final outcome. The uncertainty could also be long-lasting. Even the formation of a new government and agreement on its new approach might prove difficult. The likely leaders of a new government have also said things in this campaign that must hinder the chances of reaching an amicable settlement with EU partners.第二个影响将来自英国与欧盟关系走向的长期不确定性。很难夸大这种不确定性。公投决定退出欧盟后,英国人将不知道新政府的倾向、英国重新谈判与欧盟的关系时希望采用的方式、或是欧盟其他成员国的反应,更不用说任何最终结果了。不确定性也会长期存在。甚至组建新政府以及就其处理与欧盟关系的新策略达成一致可能都有困难。可能成为新政府领导人的那些人还在这场运动中说了一些话,这些话肯定有损于英国与欧盟伙伴达成和解的机会。The third effect would be the shift in financial conditions. Markets would at once reassess the UK’s economic prospects. Asset prices, including the exchange rate (as the Bank of England has aly noted), are likely to adjust downwards immediately. An appreciable increase in the risk premia on UK assets could emerge. Asset price volatility would also increase. The BoE might face a difficult dilemma, since there is likely to be a simultaneous rise in expected inflation and a decline in expected output in the short term.第三个影响是金融环境的变化。市场会立刻重估英国的经济前景。正如英国央BoE)早已指出的,包括汇率在内的资产价格很可能立即下调。英国资产的风险溢价可能出现大幅上升。资产价格波动也将加剧。英国央行可能面临一种进退两难的境地,因为短期内可能同时出现预期通胀上升和预期产出下降并存的局面。Official sources have described, in painful and quite plausible detail, how far the referendum unleashed by this government is a risky and dangerous gamble with the health of a fragile post-crisis economy. This is apart from the risks to the future cohesion of the UK and, quite possibly, of the EU, too.官方消息人士曾以令人痛苦但似乎非常有道理的细节,描述本届政府发起的公投,是以后危机时代脆弱经济的健康为赌注进行的一场多么冒险和危险的。这还不包括对英国以及很有可能对欧盟未来凝聚力造成的风险。This referendum is, arguably, the most irresponsible act by a British government in my lifetime. To the objection that this is to deny democracy, one can respond that the country was a successful democracy well before it embarked upon such referendums. Furthermore, the right time for a referendum would be when the UK is asked to accept further treaty changes or some other significant alteration in its position in the bloc. Right now one can only hope that the country does not soon learn what it means to divorce in haste and repent at leisure.可以说,此次公投是我有生之年见过的英国政府最不负责任的行为。对于认为不进行公投就意味着拒绝民主的反对观点,我们可以回答,英国在开始进行此类公投很久前便已是成功的民主国家。此外,举行公投的合适时机应是英国被要求接受条约的进一步修订,或是接受英国在欧盟中地位的其他重大变化之时。现在,我们只能希望英国不会很快尝到匆忙退出的代价,不要事后追悔莫及。来 /201606/448011

A commercial diver may have discovered a lost nuclear bomb off the coast of British Columbia near the Haida Gwaii archipelago.日前,一位商业潜水员在不列颠哥伦比亚省海达瓜依群岛的海岸附近发现了一个遗落的核炸弹。Sean Smyrichinsky was diving for sea cucumbers near British Columbia when he discovered a large metal device that looked a bit like a flying saucer.当时Sean Smyrichinsky正在加拿大不列颠哥伦比亚省附近潜水捕捞海参,随后他便发现了一个看起来有点像飞碟的巨大金属装置。The Canadian Department of National Defence (DND) believes it could be a ;lost nuke; from a US B-36 bomber that crashed in the area in 1950s.而加拿大国防部则认为这个东西很有可能是美国上世纪50年代一架坠毁的B-36轰炸机上的“丢失的核弹”。The government does not believe the bomb contains active nuclear material. It is sending naval ships out to the site, near the Haida Gwaii archipelago, to verify the find.加拿大政府认为这枚炸弹里面并没有活性核物质。目前政府方面正在派遣海军船只前往位于夏洛特皇后群岛附近的事发地点,以验这一发现。Mr Smyrichinsky says he came upon the device while diving off the coast of Pitt Island near Haida Gwaii in early October, which is near the Alaskan border with British Columbia.据Smyrichinsky表示,十月上旬他在夏洛特皇后群岛附近的皮特岛岸边潜水时碰到了这个东西,地点就在不列颠哥伦比亚省和阿拉斯加的交界处附近。It was ;bigger than a king-size bed;, perfectly flat on top with a rounded bottom and had a hole in the centre just ;like a bagel,; he told the B.他向B透露称:“那玩意儿比一张特大号双人床还要大一,顶部是平的,底部是圆的,在正中心有一个洞,看起来像一个甜甜圈。”The story of the lost nuke has mystified military historians for more than half a century. In 1950s, American B-36 Bomber 075 crashed near British Columbia on its way to Carswell Air Force Base in Texas.美国核弹丢失事件已经使得军事历史学家们迷惑不解了半个多世纪。上个世0年代,美国一架B-36轰炸75号在返回德克萨斯卡斯尔韦尔空军基地时,坠毁在了加拿大不列颠哥伦比亚省附近。The plane was on a secret mission to simulate a nuclear strike and had a real Mark IV nuclear bomb on board to see if it could carry the payload required.当时这架飞机正在进行秘密任务模拟核打击,并且飞机上还载有一枚真正的马克四型核弹来验飞机是否能够携带要求的有效载荷。Several hours into its flight, its engines caught fire and the crew had to parachute to safety. Out of a 17-person crew, five didnt make it.在起飞几小时过后,这架飞机的引擎着了火,机组人员不得不跳伞逃生。机上一共有17人,其中人不幸遇难。The American military says the bomb was filled with lead, uranium and TNT but no plutonium, so it wasnt capable of a nuclear explosion.据美国军方表示,那枚炸弹中全是铅、铀和TNT炸药,没有钚,所以不可能发生核爆。The crew put the plane on autopilot and set it to crash in the middle of the ocean, but three years later, its wreckage was found hundreds of kilometres inland.机组人员将飞机设定成自动驾驶,并将其坠毁在大洋中,但是三年过后人们在内陆几百公里远的地方发现了飞机的残骸。Dirk Septer, an aviation historian from British Columbia, says the US government searched the wreckage but couldnt find the weapon.据加拿大不列颠哥伦比亚省航空历史学家德里克表示,当时美国政府对发现的飞机残骸进行了搜索,但是却没能找到丢失的核弹;It was a mystery to everyone,; he told the B. ;It was the height of the Cold War and they were just paranoid that the Russians would get a hold of it.;德里克向B透露:“这对所有人来说都是一个不解之谜。当时冷战正酣,他们都非常偏执地猜疑俄罗斯人会得到这枚核弹。”来 /201611/479382

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