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2019年02月19日 21:31:21 | 作者:飞度医院排行 | 来源:新华社
In 1950, at a time when there were fewer than 10 digital computers worldwide, Bill Pfann, a 33-year-old scientist at Bell Laboratories in New Jersey, discovered a method that could be used to purify elements, such as germanium and silicon. He could not possibly have imagined then that this discovery would enable the silicon micro-chip and the rise of the computer industry, the Internet, and the emergence of the information age. Today, there are about 10 billion Internet-connected devices in the world, such as laptops and mobile phones, and at the heart of each of these devices, there is at least one such micro-chip that acts as its “engine”.1950年时,全球只有不到10台数字计算机。时年33岁的新泽西贝尔实验室科学家比尔o芬尼在这一年发现了一种提纯锗、硅等元素的方法。他当时可能想不到,这一发现促成了硅制微芯片的诞生,推动了计算机和互联网的发展,导致了信息时代的出现。如今,全球已有超过100亿台联网设备。而所有这些设备中,都至少有一块这样的微芯片充当“引擎”作用。The reason behind this relentless progress is neatly contained in a prophetic law that was announced 50 years ago this Sunday, called Moore’s Law. The micro-chip is built with tiny electrical switches made of purified silicon called transistors and the law stated that the number of transistors on a chip would double every year. In 1975, Gordon Moore revised his forecast to state that the count would double every two years. The law has held true since.50年前,一个预言式的定律巧妙地揭示了科技不断进步背后的原因,它就是尔定律。微芯片上有许多由纯净硅制成的微型电子开关,它们被称作晶体管。而尔定律认为芯片上的晶体管数量每年都会翻倍。1975年,戈登o尔修正了他的预测,认为晶体管数量会每两年翻一倍。从此以后,这一定律从未失准。Why is Moore’s Law relevant? Because this doubling of the number of transistors led to computer chips that could be packed with increasingly sophisticated circuitry that was both energy efficient and cheap. This led to the widesp adoption of computers, mobile phones, and the information technology revolution.为何尔定律经年不衰?因为晶体管数量的倍增让计算机芯片能够搭载越来越复杂的电路系统,它们不仅节能,还十分便宜。这导致了计算机、手机的普及,推动了信息技术的革命。The price of computation is about 10 million times cheaper than it was 40 years ago, and the computing power held in a smart phone outstrips the workstations that computer scientists used in their offices in the 1990s. That we have been able to so far hold true to Moore’s Law is the reason that the electronic circulation of information has been commoditized, changing the way many of us learn, bank, travel, communicate and socialize.计算机的价格比起40年前,已然便宜了一千万倍,而一部智能手机拥有的计算能力,已经超过了20世纪90年代计算机科学家使用的工作站。至今为止,尔定律依然适用,也因为如此,信息的电子流通变得商品化,改变了我们当中许多人学习、储蓄、旅行、沟通和社交的方式。Take the example of social networking using a mobile phone. It works because the cost of a transistor has dropped a million fold and computing is about 10,000 times more energy efficient since 1980, when this writer first went to engineering school. Consequently, a 0 smart phone powered by a biscuit-sized battery contains a micro-chip with a few billion transistors in it and enough computing power to digitally process an image, and then upload and share it wirelessly using powerful mathematics to encode the data. This is a consequence of Moore’s Law in action.以使用手机进行社交为例。之所以能实现这一点,是因为从1980年(当时笔者才刚进入工程学院)至今,晶体管的价格降低了几百万倍,计算的能效提高了几万倍。因此,售价200美元、由一块饼干大小的电池作为能源的智能手机中,拥有一块包含几十亿晶体管的微芯片,其计算能力足以对图片进行数字化加工,运用强大的数学运算能力编码其数据,再通过无线网络上传和分享它。这就是尔定律作用下的成果。Yet, on its 50th anniversary, there are tell-tale signs that Moore’s Law is slowing, and we are almost certain that the law will cease to hold within a decade. With further miniaturization silicon transistors will attain dimensions of the order of only a handful of atoms and the laws of physics dictate that the transistors and electronic circuits will cease to work efficiently at that point. As Moore’s Law’s slows down, innovations in other areas, such as developments in software, will pick up the slack in the short-term.然而,在它诞生50周年之际,已有迹象表明尔定律下的增长开始放缓,我们也几乎可以确定,在接下来的十年内,它恐怕将不复成立。硅晶体管继续微型化下去,将达到仅含有少量原子排列的维度,根据物理定律,这种情况下晶体管和电子电路将无法有效工作。随着尔定律下的增长放缓,其他领域的创新,如软件方面的发展,将在短期内补上这一缺口。But in the longer-term, there will be fundamental changes in the essential design of the classical computer that, remarkably, has remained unchanged since the 1950s. Designed for precise calculations, today’s computing machines do not make inferences, and qualitative decisions, or recognize patterns from large amounts of data efficiently. The next substantive leap forward will be in computers with human-like cognitive capabilities that are also energy efficient. IBM’s Watson, the computing system that won the television game show Jeopardy! in 2011, consumed about 4000 times more energy than its human competitors. This experience reinforced the need for new energy efficient computing machines that are designed differently from the sequential, calculative methodology of classical computers and are inspired, perhaps, by the way biological brains work.但从长期来看,从20世纪50年代至今未曾改变的传统计算机的基本设计,将会出现根本性的变革。如今的计算机可用来进行精确计算,但它们无法高效地从大量数据中得出推断,做出定性决策或识别模式。下一个实质性的飞越将会出现在那些拥有类人认知能力且高能效的计算机上。IBM的计算机系统沃森在2011年的智力挑战节目“Jeopardy!”上取得胜利,但它消耗的能量是与它同台对垒的人类选手的4000倍。这一经历凸显了对新型高能效计算机的需求。它们要与使用顺序计算方法的经典计算机有所区别,设计者也许将从生物大脑的运转方式中汲取灵感。A journalist recently asked me whether the continuation of Moore’s Law was indispensable. It is the beauty of the collective enterprise of human innovation that which ensures that nothing is indispensable indefinitely for technology to progress. Decades later one might look at the era of Moore’s Law as a golden period where computers came of age through a masterful display of an industry’s ability to miniaturize and create billions of flawless and identical copies of tiny circuits at factories throughout the world. But, much as a pack of migratory birds flying in V-formation rotate in at the lead position, there will, at that future time, be many other technologies that will have carried us forward in the information age.一位记者最近问我,尔定律的持续是不是不可或缺的。人类创新这项集体活动之美,就在于保了没有什么对于技术进步而言是不可或缺的。几十年后,人们或许会将尔定律的年代看作黄金时代,这个年代的计算机起初是一个行业实力的体现,后来计算机逐渐小型化,全球的工厂制造了数以亿计一模一样的完美微型电路。但就像候鸟群会以V字队列盘旋在领头者旁边一样,未来会有许多其他技术引领着我们在信息时代继续前进。 /201504/371646PayPal is on the hunt for international acquisitions to drive growth and fend off predators, as it prepares to separate from eBay and become an independent company in the first of several big technology split-ups this year.PayPal正在物色国际收购目标以推动增长并防止自己被收购。该公司眼下正准备脱离eBay成为一家独立的公司——这将拉开今年数家大型科技公司分拆的序幕。Chief executive Dan Schulmantold the Financial Times that acquisitions would be a priority, as PayPal uses the bn war chest that is a legacy of the split.PayPal首席执行官丹#8226;舒尔曼(Dan Schulman)向英国《金融时报》表示,收购将会是公司的优先考虑事项,因为此次分拆给它带来60亿美元的现金储备。“The balance sheet affords us the opportunity to look opportunistically where it makes sense to acquire,” he said. “I think there is a tremendous opportunity to look across the world.”他说:“当前的财务状况给我们带来了物色有价值的收购标的的机会。纵观全球,我们有着巨大的收购机遇。”The strong balance sheet would also support PayPal’s lending programmes, he noted.舒尔曼指出,强劲的资产负债表也将持PayPal的贷款项目。PayPal will pass a milestone towards independence today as pricing begins for its shares. Shareholders of eBay will get one share in PayPal per share they hold when the formal split takes place on July 17.今日PayPal将会启动股票定价,从而向成为一家独立公司跨出里程碑意义的一步。7月17日正式分拆时,eBay的股东每持有1股eBay股票将获得1股PayPal股票。The company’s enterprise value could be about bn, roughly two-thirds of eBay’s valuation, analysts at Wedbush estimated.Wedbush的分析师估计,PayPal的企业价值大约为400亿美元,大约是eBay估值的三分之二。PayPal’s rapid growth — revenues were up 19 per cent last year, with customers rising 13 per cent — has come increasingly from outside the eBay empire.PayPal的迅速增长——去年收入增长19%,客户增长13%——越来越来自eBay帝国的外部。Last week PayPal announced it would spend nearly bn to purchase Xoom, a growing international remittances company, which will leave about bn in net cash on its balance sheet.PayPal上周宣布,将斥资近10亿美元收购Xoom,这将让公司资产负债表上剩下约50亿美元现金。Xoom是一家正在成长中的国际汇兑公司。Other recent acquisitions include Braintree, which bolstered PayPal’s presence in processing software used in mobile apps. That deal included Venmo, a money transfer app for splitting the cost of meals or paying rent, which has seen total payment volumes quadruple in the past year.PayPal最近的收购还包括Braintree公司,后者让PayPal加大进军移动应用中的处理软件。该交易包括了Braintree旗下转账应用Venmo,该应用可用于分担餐费或者付租金。Venmo在过去一年里的付总额增长了3倍。Even as PayPal looks for acquisitions, it is considered a takeover target itself, particularly when cashed-up companies such as Apple and Google are trying to bolster their own payments businesses.就在PayPal寻求收购目标之际,它本身也被视为收购目标,尤其是在苹果(Apple)和谷歌(Google)等资金充沛的公司努力提升自己的付业务之际。 /201507/384363China#39;s move to regulate internet finance is a positive step towards legitimising a sector that has largely operated in a vacuum, analysts say, but the rules also reflect the government#39;s support for incumbent banks.分析人士表示,中国正采取措施,监管互联网金融,这是这个基本上在真空环境下运营的行业走向法制化的一项积极举措,但这些规定也反映出政府对现有的持。Ten agencies including the central bank, the banking regulator and the securities regulator jointly issued guidelines this month that provide an official definition of ;internet finance; and specify which agencies are responsible for regulating which types of internet financial institutions.包括央行、银监会以及监会在内的10个部委本月联合印发指导意见,就“互联网金融”给出官方定义,并明确了对各类互联网金融机构的监管分工。The rules will support the growth of online financial services such as online payments, peer-to-peer lending, crowdfunded equity finance, and asset management by creating a clear regulatory framework under which they operate, cleansing their reputation as fly-by-night operators.这些规定将创建一个明晰的运营监管框架,洗刷互联网金融务运营商不可靠的名声,从而持互联网金融务的增长,例如在线付、个人对个人(peer-to-peer,简称P2P)贷款、股权众筹融资以及资产管理等务。They will also promote consolidation, as weaker players that can#39;t meet more stringent requirements fall by the wayside or get acquired.规定还将推动整合,达不到更严格要求的实力较弱的参与者将破产或被收购。;Regulation will standardise operations and expose the industry to sunlight. Practices that were seen as existing in a grey area will be forbidden,; says Xu Hongwei, chief executive of Online Lending House, a website that tracks the P2P industry.追踪P2P贷款行业的网站网贷之家(Online Lending House)首席执行官徐红伟表示:“监管将实现业务的标准化,并让这个行业暴露在阳光之下。那些被视为处于灰色领域的做法将被禁止。”;But regulation will also increase operating costs, causing some of the lower ranking and weaker players who can#39;t make the cut to go bankrupt. And it will raise barriers to entry. Average people won#39;t be able to get in any more.;“但监管还将提高运营成本,导致一些评级较低且实力较弱的参与者破产。同时这将提高准入门槛。普通人无法再进入了。”As regulation takes effect, analysts say big players such as Alibaba#39;s finance affiliate, Zhejiang Ant Small amp; Micro Financial Services, stand to benefit. Ant Financial controls the leading third-party online payment service, Alipay, and the country#39;s biggest money-market fund, Yu#39;E Bao, which is marketed online.分析人士表示,随着监管规定的实施,大型参与者将受益,例如阿里巴巴(Alibaba)旗下的金融业务浙江蚂蚁小微金融务公司(Zhejiang Ant Small amp; Micro Financial Services)。蚂蚁金融控制着领先第三方在线付务付宝(Alipay)以及中国最大货币市场基金余额宝(Yu#39;E Bao)。Other heavyweights in the internet finance space include Lufax, a P2P lending subsidiary of Ping An Insurance; Ouyeel, a unit of Shanghai Baosteel Group that provides financing for steel traders; and Small Entrepreneur, a unit of China Merchants Bank, the country#39;s sixth-largest lender, that focuses on wealth management.互联网金融行业的其他重量级参与者包括平安保险(Ping An Insurance)旗下的P2P贷款机构陆金所(Lufax);上海宝钢集团(Shanghai Baosteel Group)旗下负责为钢铁交易商提供融资的机构;以及中国第六大招商(China Merchants Bank)旗下关注财富管理的小企业E家(Small Entrepreneur)。The new rules seek to draw a clear line between P2P lending and banking. P2P platforms must clearly disclose to customers that they are only intermediaries between borrowers and lenders and are forbidden from taking deposits or providing guarantees. P2P platforms are also not allowed to raise funds for their own projects.这些新规希望把P2P贷款与业明显区别开来。P2P贷款必须明确告知客户,它们只是借款人和贷款人之间的中介机构,不得吸收存款或提供担保。P2P平台也不得为自己的项目筹集资金。Yet some industry insiders worry that the rules are too restrictive and favour incumbent financial institutions, especially the state-owned banks, and are awaiting further guidance. The latest guidelines laid out broad principles, with detailed regulations from specific agencies to follow in the coming months.然而一些行业内部人士担心,这些新规限制性太强,且偏袒现有金融机构,特别是国有。最新的指导意见列出了总体原则,各个部委的详细规定将在未来几个月出台。 /201507/388807

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