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楼主:飞度【养生回答】 时间:2018年11月16日 17:54:48 点击:0 回复:0
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Here#39;s what Apple told investors about its business Tuesday: Margins, revenues, and profits in the next quarter all will be worse than investors had expected. Here#39;s what Apple didn#39;t address Wednesday: Specific plans for any new product categories or personnel moves, either among its long-serving management team or to fill at least one long-vacant hole. The stock rallied in after-hours trading.本周二,苹果(Apple)这样告诉投资者:下个季度的利润率、收入和净利润都会低于投资者此前的预期。苹果没有谈到的是:没有任何关于新的产品品类或人事变动的具体计划,既没有对长期务的管理团队进行调整,也没有填补什么长期空缺职位。随后,苹果股价在盘后交易中反弹。Oh yeah, one more thing: Apple (AAPL) said it will dramatically increase its dividend, its share buybacks, and, for the first time, that it will borrow significant amounts of money to fuel this return of capital to shareholders. Apple actually bragged on its earnings call with investors that it will be one of the biggest payers of dividends in the world. Think: Insanely great … dividends·哦,对了,还有一件事:苹果宣布将大幅增加派息和股票回购,还将首次借入相当的资金来提高股东的资本回报率。事实上,苹果在这次面向投资者的业绩电话会议上甚至夸口,苹果将成为全球派息最高的公司之一。想想:超高……派息?There#39;s more. Tim Cook, the man with the most unenviable task in the history of business, that of following Steve Jobs, said Apple planned to release ;great; new products in the ;fall and throughout 2014,; and, eventually, new categories. The fall· If true, meaning that if Apple#39;s big meeting with developers in June is a ho-hum event from a new-product perspective, then Apple will have gone a year without new product introductions.还有,从史蒂夫·乔布斯手中接过苹果公司CEO一职、怎么干都吃力不讨好的蒂姆·库克还宣布,苹果计划在“今秋和2014年”推出“非常出色”的新产品,并最终推出新的产品品类。今年秋天?如果是这样,那么6月份的苹果开发人员大会从新产品角度而言将毫无亮点,苹果将经历没有新产品推出的一年。New products at Apple is the only thing that matters. Margins are eroding because new products cannibalize older products. The success of the iPad Mini is a financial penalty for Apple: It#39;s a less profitable product than its bigger cousin. But that is beside the point. Apple said a significant number of iPad Mini buyers are first-time iPad buyers, and this is what is important, adding new Apple customers to its lists of people to market the next great products -- whatever their configuration. Remember, Apple has done this before. iPod Shuffle customers spent less than they did on iPods. They also had to have an iPhone when it came out.新产品对于苹果是唯一真正重要的东西。利润率也在下降,因为新产品侵占了老产品的市场和消费者。iPad Mini的成功对于苹果的财务是一项灾难:iPad Mini的利润率低于比它大一号的iPad。但这只是一方面。苹果称,相当一部分的iPad Mini买家是首次购入iPad产品,这很重要,因为它为苹果带来了新客户,所有现有客户都会是下一款杰出产品的目标客户——不管新产品是啥样。记得吗,苹果早就这么干过,当初iPod Shuffle用户就比iPod用户的花费要低。但iPhone出现后,他们都得要一台。In some ways, Apple sounds delusional when it talks about itself. Asked, as he has been many times before, for his take on the trend to pack bigger screens into smartphones, Tim Cook said he thinks Apple#39;s iPhone 5 has the best screen in existence and that big screens aren#39;t for everyone. He#39;ll keep saying that until Apple offers a phone with a bigger screen. And we#39;ll see how that sounds when we witness customer reactions to the new Samsung Galaxy S4, a product whose media blitz has just begun.在某种程度上,苹果说起自己的时候有些妄自尊大。问起他对智能手机屏幕越来越大这个趋势怎么看时(这个问题他显然已经被问到过很多次了),蒂姆·库克表示,他认为苹果iPhone 5的显示屏是现有产品中最好的,大屏幕并不适合所有人。估计在苹果能够提供一款大屏手机之前,他会一直这么说。我们会关注随着消费者对三星(Samsung)新款Galaxy S4手机的反应变化,他的言辞有何变化。围绕Galaxy S4手机的诸多报道才刚刚见诸媒体。In other ways, Apple shows that it is very much in tune with reality. Cook knows keeping 5 billion lying around is too much. So he#39;ll give more back to shareholders. He knows that with interest rates as low as they are it makes no sense for a company with Apple#39;s balance sheet not to borrow money and share the benefits with shareholders. So he#39;s taking on debt -- Steve Jobs#39;s aversion to the stuff be damned.其他方面,苹果的自我表述与现实相当吻合。库克知道持有1,450亿美元现金实在是太多了。因此,他打算增加对股东的回馈。他知道,在当前利率这么低的情况下,像苹果这样优质的资产负债表,不贷款,不把利润与股东分享,是没有意义的。因此,他准备举债——这可是史蒂夫·乔布斯最不愿做的事了。The world stops and listens when Apple talks. The problem is that Apple doesn#39;t always have something to say, and Tuesday was one of those days. It would be foolish to assume Apple isn#39;t ever going to have anything to say again. But the pressure certainly is building.一旦苹果开口,世界都会停下来倾听。问题是苹果不是总有东西可以讲,周二就是这样。当然,不能假定苹果将来也不会有什么可讲。改变的压力显然正在不断加大。 /201304/237141Based on some of the early buzz, you#39;d figure the 9 Samsung Gear smart watch is a downright revolutionary device. On paper, it has several nifty things going for it: a 1.63-inch color display, Google (GOOG) Android, and 70 apps at launch from eBay (EBAY), Evernote, and RunKeeper, among them. It lets users make phone calls, check email, even point and shoot photos and by holding up your hand. And voice recognition means it#39;s possible to navigate the device touch-free. With all those features going for it, it#39;s easy to let the imagination run wild with far-out hypothetical scenarios where this thing is all but doing the home cooking.三星(Samsung)售价299美元的Gear智能手表刚一发布,就收到不少好评,但如果你据此认为这是一部革命性的设备,那不妨往下看看。从各项参数来看,Gear亮点颇多:1.63英寸的全屏幕、谷歌(Google)Android操作系统、70款首发应用,其中不乏eBay、印象笔记(Evernote)和健身软件RunKeeper等大牌应用。用户可以打电话、查阅电子邮件,甚至手腕一抬就能拍摄照片和视频,而语音识别更是让触摸操作都省了。面对如此繁多的功能,用户很容易浮想联翩,认为小小的Gear是万能的,能够完成生活中所有大小事,但事实并不尽然。Still, I#39;m not sold. Here are three easy reasons why:所以,我并不推荐Gear。以下是三条显而易见的理由。It doesn#39;t do anything my phone doesn#39;t aly do (yet). All right, so the Gear isn#39;t even out. But based on Samsung#39;s announcement, it doesn#39;t do anything my iPhone 5 doesn#39;t aly do besides look better strapped to someone#39;s wrist. Most of the 70 apps available on day one are aly available for Android and iOS devices. Sure, it might make certain tasks easier -- I like the idea of running without having to pull out my phone -- but there just aren#39;t enough unique use cases for me to even consider splurging on this.Gear能做的智能手机都能做到。所以,Gear并没有什么独门功夫。相反,三星在发布会上展示的功能我的iPhone 5全能做到,除了这款手表戴在手上比较好看之外。至于发布首日可用的70款应用程序,它们中的绝大部分Android和iOS设备都能下载到。的确,某些场合中手表比较方便——例如我在慢跑时就不用掏出手机了,但光凭这一点还不够,不值得我掏钱。I don#39;t have a Galaxy Note III. Unless users also have the Galaxy Note III, they aren#39;t going to get the most out of the Gear. Samsung#39;s smart watch must be paired via Bluetooth with the upcoming phone-tablet hybrid, a.k.a. ;phablet,; to perform many basic tasks. (That may change: Samsung has said the Gear will likely work with other Galaxy phones in the future, though it didn#39;t specify when.) In other words, the watch will only work with a small subset of devices for the foreseeable future. That severely limits its appeal and potential audience. Because in the end, I#39;d have to spend 0 for the Gear and purchase a Note III. That#39;s too rich for my blood.Galaxy Note III可不是人人都有。除非每个购买Gear的用户都有一台Galaxy Note III,不然多半是委屈了它。三星的智能手表必须通过蓝牙与三星最新款的平板手机配对,才能运行许多基本功能。(虽然三星表示未来Gear也可能持Galaxy手机,但具体时间还没有确定。)换句话说,在短期内Gear只能和三星的小部分设备配对,势必大幅降低它的吸引力,也极大地影响了潜在用户。最后一来,我必须花300美元购买Gear,然后还要搭买一台Note III。我可没这么多钱。I don#39;t love the so-so battery life. According to Samsung, the Gear should go a day in between charges depending on how it#39;s used. That#39;s just average as smart phone battery life goes and disappointing when it comes to so-called smart watches. To compare, the Pebble smart watch lasts up to a week before needing more juice. Sure, the Pebble uses a simpler black and white screen and lacks the bells and whistles of the Gear, but I still expect more out of the latter. I#39;m OK plugging in my phone before I go to bed each night. But my watch? Not so much.电池续航差强人意。三星表示,根据使用情况,Gear的续航时间为一天左右。这样的表现和智能手机相差无几,这难道还是所谓的智能手表吗?看看竞争对手,Pebble智能手表的续航时间可是高达一整周。当然,Pebble仅仅配备了一款简单的黑白显示屏,而且也没有Gear那么多花里胡哨的功能,但我还是希望后者的电池能更给力一点。每天晚上睡觉前给手机充电是理所当然的事,但手表也需要吗? /201309/256737Fred Vogelstein has a must story on the creation of the iPhone in the New York Times Magazine.在新一期的《纽约时报》杂志上,Fred Vogelstein有一篇iPhone创造的必读故事。It#39;s chock full of great little details, and you absolutely should it. Here#39;s one of many little nuggets from the story.里面充斥了很棒的小细节,你绝对应该读一读。这是许多小掘金故事中的一个。According to a senior Apple executive, the company likely spent over 0 million to develop the original iPhone.据一位苹果高管,公司可能花了1.5亿多美元来开发最初的iPhone。Considering how important the iPhone is for Apple, this seems like nothing for the company to spend. But, it#39;s still a fairly big number.考虑到iPhone对于苹果的重要性,这笔花费似乎对公司来说不值一提。但是,它仍然是一个相当大的数字。Apple invested more in the iPhone than money, though, reports Vogelstein. It also put its best people on the project.但是苹果投入iPhone的不只是钱,Vogelstein报告。它还将其最好的人才用在这个项目上。;Many top engineers in the company were being sucked into the project, forcing slowdowns in the timetables of other work,; says Vogelstein. If the iPhone were a dud, it put the whole company at risk because this is the only thing it was really working on.“公司很多顶尖的工程师被吸进这个项目,迫使其他工作的时间表放缓,” Vogelstein说。如果iPhone无用,它会使整个公司陷入危机,因为这是其唯一真正在做的事。And choosing top engineers caused a rift within Apple. The iPhone was a top secret project.选择高级工程师造成苹果内部的分裂。iPhone是一个绝密的项目。Andy Grignon, a hardware engineer in charge of the radios in the iPhone told Vogelstein, ; Everyone knows who the rock stars are in a company, and when you start to see them all slowly get plucked out of your area and put in a big room behind glass doors that you don’t have access to, it feels bad.;Andy Grignon,一个负责iPhone无线电的硬件工程师告诉Vogelstein,“每个人都知道公司里谁是摇滚明星,当你开始看到他们都慢慢退出你的区域,在一个玻璃门后面的大房间里,而你却进不去,那感觉糟透了。” /201310/258987As the legend goes, in 1964 Dr. Gordon Moore, then at Fairchild Semiconductor, was preparing a paper for Electronics magazine on the evolution of semiconductor memory chips. He decided to plot the capacity of those chips, versus their year of introduction, on some graph paper. There were only a half-dozen or so data points, as memory chips at that point were less than five years old and only contained a few hundred transistors each.据说,在1964年,当时还在飞兆半导体公司(Fairchild Semiconductor)工作的戈登o尔士正在为《电子学》(Electronics)杂志准备一篇有关半导体存储芯片演化史的论文。他决定把半导体存储芯片的容量和它们的生产年份用坐标图标释出来。当时这张图上只有五六个数据点,因为半导体芯片刚刚诞生五年,每张芯片上只有几百个晶体管。Connecting the dots, Moore noticed a familiar parabolic curve – shallow at the beginning and then quickly turning upwards. Unfortunately, that curve also quickly went straight off the top of the page. So Moore switched to logarithmic paper – that is, with one side in powers of ten — and, stunningly, the memory chips tracked along a straight, nearly horizontal line. Moore, one of the most brilliant individuals in Silicon Valley history (and future Intel INTC -2.74% co-founder), not only knew what this said, but more important, what it meant.将所有的数据点连起来之后,尔发现,这条曲线一开始的走向比较平缓,然后迅速大幅上扬。可惜那条曲线最后跑出了草纸的顶部。于是尔又画了一张对数坐标图,这次他惊奇地发现,将一条坐标用10的N次方来计数之后,存储芯片的发展趋势呈一条几乎水平的直线。作为硅谷历史上最聪明的人之一【也是未来英特尔公司(Intel)的共同创始人】,尔不仅明白了这张图说明了什么,更重要的是明白了它意味着什么。What it said was that semiconductor memory was progressing at a pace never before seen in any product in human history – and if that pace could be maintained the generational leaps would soon be gigantic. This trajectory – at first defined as the doubling of the performance of semiconductor chips every couple years – became known as Moore’s Law.首先,这张座标图说明,半导体存储芯片的发展速度,是人类在任何产品上都不曾见过的——如果这种速度能够继续保持下去,很快就会发生重大的代际跨越。后来这根趋势图被总结为“尔定律”,即半导体存储芯片的性能,每一两年就会翻一番。But what Moore’s Law meant was that for the first time, perhaps in any industry anywhere, there was now a map into the future. You could track that line decades out into the future – and know exactly what memory chips would be like on any date. And that meant you could plan for that date, and you could build for it. It was a magic key to competitive success.但是尔定律背后的重大意义在于,我们首次有了一张通向未来的路线图。你可以根据尔定律预测几十年后的情形,而且直到现在,尔定律与现实辉映得都一直十分准确。这意味着你可以对未来的某个日子进行规划和设计。可以说,它是让你在未来获得成功优势的一把神奇钥匙。Moore’s Law quickly sp from memory to logic chips and then to the rest of the semiconductor industry – and quickly made the chip business the fastest growing industry. And soon, the most valuable.尔定律很快从存储芯片扩展到了逻辑芯片,然后又渗透到了半导体行业的其它领域,而且很快使芯片行业成为增长最快的一个行业,同时也是最具价值的一个行业。What no one, not even Moore himself, saw coming was that, by the 1980s and 1990s, with tens of billions of chips out in the world, Moore’s Law would break out of electronics and into the rest of the economy. From automotive to infrastructure to genetic research to telephony – companies, laboratories and government agencies discovered that if they could find any way to hook up to Moore’s Law they too could experience exponential growth. One result was the great transformational technology of our time, the Internet.但是当时,包括尔本人在内,所有人都没有预测到,到了八十年代和九十年代之交的时候,全球的芯片数量数以百亿计,尔定律已经具有了冲出电子行业,进入国民经济其它领域的能力。从汽车到基础建设,从基因研究到电话业务——各大企业、实验室和政府机构发现,只要他们有能力与尔定律挂钩,就能实现指数级增长。其中的一个结果就是我们这个时代的重大革新技术——互联网。In writing my new book on the history of Intel Corporation, The Intel Trinity, I became convinced that we have made a serious mistake being so comfortable with that shallow line. And that mistake begins with Gordon Moore’s change of graph paper. That’s because behind the gently sloping straight line there still lies that dizzying parabolic curve. It is this reality that has been largely forgotten over the last few decades.在撰写关于英特尔公司历史的新书《英特尔三杰》(The Intel Trinity)的过程中,我认识到我们犯了一个严重的错误,那就是过于相信尔划出的这条平滑曲线。这个错误始于戈登o尔更换了坐标系的那一瞬间。那是因为在对数坐标系上看起来甚为平缓的直线背后,还隐藏着一条大起大落的抛物线。而过去几十年的大部分时间里,我们都忘掉了这个事实。What lies in that steep arc? Like all parabolic curve, it begins deceptively flat: for the first 40 years, Moore’s Law is a gentle grade. Yet under that comparatively flat curve can be found the minicomputer, the microprocessor, the digital calculator, computer gaming, the personal computer, the Internet, robotics, wireless telephony, the smart phone and electronic commerce – in other words, our world has been utterly transformed by just the shallowest section of this curve.那么,那条陡峭的曲线究竟隐藏着什么?像所有抛物线一样,它一开始也显示出带有迷惑性的平缓趋势。在头40年里,尔定律还处于比较温和的水平。这条相对平缓的曲线在微型计算机、微处理器、数码计算器、电脑游戏、个人电脑、互联网、机器人、无线电话、智能手机和电子商务等领域的发展过程中都能看得到。换句话说,光是这条曲线最平缓的部分,就已经将我们居住的世界完全改造了。But then, about 2005, roughly the time the newest chips reached 1 billion transistors on their little squares of silicon, everything changed. Suddenly the great accumulating leaps caused by the biannual doubling of Moore’s Law began to turn the curve nearly straight up, heading toward infinity – and tens of billions of transistors on each chip. In other words, Moore’s Law is now jumping the tech world forward each year more than the sum of all that has been accomplished since the birth of Silicon Valley.但到了2005年的时候,也就是大约到了每块指甲大的新型芯片可以集成多达10亿个晶体管的时候,一切都变了。尔定律带来的量变的积累,使这条曲线陡然出现了几乎垂直的增长,方向是正无穷,也就是每块芯片集成几千亿个晶体管。换句话说,尔定律为科技界带来了跳跃式发展,每年的发展速度都超过了自从硅谷诞生以来所有年头的总和。We aly have glimmerings. Look at the rise of ‘exponential’ corporations like Facebook FB – the first service product in human history to reach 1 billion regular users – and Twitter TWTR -1.50% . Look as well at the usage curves of the smartphone, the smart tablet, and the Cloud, the last of which essentially makes memory infinite, ubiquitous and free. All of these earthshaking new products and technologies have exploded on the scene in the last 8 years.我们已经隐约地意识到了这一点。比如Facebook等企业的“指数级”崛起——Facebook是人类历史上第一项超过10亿名常规用户的务型产品。此外还有Twitter等。另外你也可以看看智能手机、智能平板电脑和云务的使用曲线,尤其是云务基本上使我们实现了无限存储、随时随地存储和免费存储的能力。所有这些颠覆式的新产品和新技术,都是在过去短短8年之内井喷出来的。What’s waiting in the wings? The full promise of Big Data – and the end of the 500-year age of sampling and statistics. Soon we’ll be tracking every one of our heartbeats, every fish in the sea and every gust of wind – and we will learn more about the natural world in a few decades than we have in human history. As a billion devices around the world begin to talk with each other, we will also soon be just a minor part of the “The Internet of Things,” which may be a thousand times greater than the human-oriented Internet we currently know.下一步有什么在等着我们?首先是大数据以及已经拥有500年历史的抽样统计学的潜力将被充分挖掘。很快我们将有能力监测我们的每一次心跳,追踪海里的每一条鱼,地球上的每一阵风。未来几十年里,我们对自然界的了解,将超过人类有史以来的总和。随着全球几十亿台设备实现了交流互联,我们很快也将成为所谓“物联网”的一分子,而物联网的贡献,有可能要比以人为核心的“互联网”大1000倍。Further up the curve lies the nanotech revolution. Mobile health and medicine, too. Go up even further and every function of body will be measured every second of our lifetime, and nano-hunter-sensors will swim in our blood helping to hunt down cancer and other diseases.尔定律的另一个潜在的应用领域是纳米技术革命,此外还有移动健康和医学等领域。未来人体的每一项功能、每一秒钟的人体指标都会被实时监测,纳米级的“猎人”传感器将游弋在我们的血液中,替我们杀死癌细胞或其它疾病。Up the curve the line between animation and reality also begins to disappear, and modeling – from new products to new worlds to new lives – become a major part of our daily existence. And it will all start with virtual sex, because in tech it always starts with sex.沿着尔定律的曲线,未来动漫和现实之间的界限也会渐渐消失。建模作为一项技术也将成为我们日常生活中的重要部分,无论是产品、我们眼中的世界甚至是我们的生活都可以进行建模。它可能首先会从虚拟性爱开始,因为科技的发展总是首先从性开始。And then? If you believe Ray Kurzweil, the line goes vertical, we map our brains into computers and live forever. If you believe Malcolm Gladwell, then the curve will eventually taper off.然后呢?如果你相信雷o库茨维尔的论断,尔曲线会呈垂直发展态势,我们的大脑可以被扫描进电脑,然后在虚拟世界永远地活下去。如果你相信马尔科姆o格拉威德尔的预言,那么这条曲线最终会递减直至消失。But neither scenario may arrive for decades. That means that as long as Intel and other chip companies can sustain Moore’s Law we may live within the Great Inflection for the rest of our lives. And, given the announcement recently by Intel and IBM IBM 0.07%无论哪种情形,都要等到几十年后才会发生。这意味着只要英特尔和其他芯片公司能持续发展下去,尔定律将成为影响我们余生的“大曲线”。最近英特尔和IBM又发布了一项革命性的新型芯片晶体管工艺,这意味着事情向乐观趋势发展的可能性将非常之大。of a revolutionary new type of transistor technology for chips, the odds of that occurring look better than ever.虽然硅谷还没准备好迎接这种新的发展速度。但不管你是否已经准备好了,未来都在马不停蹄地到来……而且速度比以往任何时候更快。 /201407/314522

Since introducing its Camry family sedan in 1983, Toyota Motor Corp. has brought out an all-new version of the model every five or six years, making slighter modifications and enhancements in the interim.This time, Toyota is accelerating the pace of change. Just three years after the seventh generation Camry was introduced, Toyota is revamping the car extensively, in keeping with an exhortation from CEO Akio Toyoda to “make better cars.” While not quite a complete makeover, Toyota has replaced about a third of the Camry’s 6,000 parts and restyled the exterior and interior to make it more eye-catching and less bland.Though Toyota won’t disclose how much it invested, the sum is likely in the neighborhood of 0 million, an unexpectedly large investment to keep Camry at the front of a pack of midsize sedans that includes Honda Accord, Nissan Altima, Chevrolet Malibu, Hyundai Sonata and Ford Fusion.“The midsize family sedan segment is three million units a year,” said Bill Fay, group vice president of Toyota’s U.S. sales organization. “It’s still the biggest segment in the U.S. market and very important to us.”Twelve years running Camry has been the No. 1 best-selling car in the U.S. In 2014 it leads the segment again and likely will reign as top-seller for a thirteenth year in a row. Toyota’s decision to invest half a billion dollars in Camry just two years ahead of its likely next full-model change is an aggressive move, difficult to justify on financial grounds alone, yet reflective of the automaker’s determination not to cede leadership.Last April, at the New York Auto Show when the Camry prototype was unveiled, Fay said Toyota knew the car had to be far more visually expressive to compete with bolder styling from Ford’s new Fusion and Hyundai’s new Sonata. The midsize family segment also faces new competition from lower-priced sedans by Mercedes-Benz and other luxury manufacturers.The most noticeable styling change is Camry’s new fascia, which is bold, open and forceful, like a mouth about to devour whatever is in front of it. Except for the roof, the entire exterior is new. Toyota engineers also added to the rigidity of the car’s body with more spot welds, as well as more insulation to make the cabin quieter.Following Akio Toyoda’s ascension to chief executive in 2009 in the midst of the automaker’s sudden-acceleration troubles, his mandate to subordinates was clear: shake up the company and improve the products. Among the organizational changes in the U.S. is a move for the company’s headquarters to Plano, Texas from Torrance, California.Toyota’s impressive financial strength gives it the latitude to embark on a costly mid-cycle upgrade for a key model like Camry. The goal isn’t just to sell more cars and at higher prices: Executives know Volkswagen and General Motors are gunning for Toyota’s title of No. 1 globally in sales.The new Camry symbolizes Toyota’s determination to maintain a lofty status with consumers, reviewers, credit ratings agencies and others who assigned high grades to the company’s vehicles and financial performanceThat won’t be easy: As many big, successful companies have discovered, complacency can be the subtlest and deadliest of enemies.自1983年凯美瑞(Camry)系列轿车诞生以来,丰田汽车公司(Toyota Motor Corp.)每隔五六年就会做一些微小改动和增强,在此基础上推出一款全新车型。不过这一次,丰田加快了更新的步伐。为了响应社长丰田章男的训诫:“做更好的汽车”,第七代凯美瑞推出不过三年,丰田就对其进行了大规模的改进。尽管这并非一次彻底的改造,但丰田替换了凯美瑞6,000个部件中的大约三分之一,改变了汽车的内外风格,让它变得更加吸引眼球,而不是平淡无奇。尽管丰田并未透露具体的投资额,但这次改造的花费很可能在5亿美元左右,这是一笔出人意料的大投资,目的是为了让凯美瑞在包括本田(Honda)雅阁(Accord)、日产(Nissan)Altima、雪佛兰(Chevrolet)迈锐宝(Malibu)和福特(Ford)Fusion在内的中型轿车市场保持领先地位。美国丰田销售公司副总裁比尔#8226;费伊表示:“美国每年要卖出300万辆中型家用轿车,这仍然是美国汽车市场中最大的一块,对我们而言十分重要。”凯美瑞已经连续12年成为全美最畅销汽车。2014年,它再次在该领域名列前茅,很可能将连续第13次摘得销量桂冠。丰田决定在凯美瑞上投资5亿美元,并将可能进行的下一次产品更新提前两年,可谓是进取心十足的举动。我们很难单从经济效益的角度对其做出判断,但此举体现出了丰田不愿意将领先优势拱手让人的决心。在今年4月的纽约国际汽车展(New York Auto Show)上,丰田展示了新款凯美瑞的原型。费伊表示,丰田清楚这款汽车在外型上还需要更具视觉冲击力,才能与风格鲜明的新款福特Fusion和新款现代(Hyundai)索纳塔(Sonata)抗衡。中型家用轿车市场也面临着来自梅赛德斯-奔驰(Mercedes-Benz)和其他豪华汽车厂商低价车的竞争。最引人注目的风格改变出现在凯美瑞的新仪表板上,它的设计大胆开放,充满力度,就像一张将要吞噬面前一切的大嘴。除了车顶以外,汽车的外表有了彻底的变化。丰田的工程师增加了车身的焊点,使得车身硬度增强,此外还强化了其隔音效果,使车内环境更加安静。在2009年丰田深陷汽车突然加速的麻烦时,丰田章男接任社长。此后,他对下属的指令就十分明确:重组公司,改进产品。而丰田在美国进行的重组中,有一项就是把总部从加利福尼亚州托伦斯迁到德克萨斯州普莱诺。丰田强大的财力让他们有能力对凯美瑞这样的关键车型进行价值不菲的中期升级。公司的目的不仅是以更高的价格卖出更多的汽车:高管们都知道,大众汽车(Volkswagen )和通用汽车(General Motors)都在努力从丰田手中夺取全球销量第一的宝座。新款凯美瑞象征着丰田的决心:维持公司在顾客、员、信用评级机构和其他对丰田汽车及其财务业绩赞誉有加的人士心中的崇高地位。这点并不简单:正如许多成功的大型企业发现的那样,自满可能是最隐蔽却最致命的敌人。 /201409/332268

The new iPhone is sure to shatter previous sales records. It may also prove the moment to dump Apple shares. 新iPhone一定会打破之前的销售纪录。除此之外,它也提醒我们,可能到了卖出苹果(Apple)股票的时候了。 Each new iPhone has sold as many units as all previous generations combined, Apple executives have joked internally according to recent trial testimony. And it isn#39;t crazy to believe exponential growth can continue for at least one more. Combine pent-up demand among existing iPhone users looking to upgrade, with the possibility that the new model will finally be compatible with the world#39;s largest carrier, China Mobile, and investors can expect explosive results. 据前不久的庭审词显示,苹果高管在公司内部开玩笑时曾说,每款新iPhone的销量都是之前所有几代产品的销量之和。认为至少另一款iPhone的销量也将呈现出这种增长模式并非不切实际的想法。那些想让手里iPhone更新换代的用户具有潜在需求,再加上新机型可能最终将与全球最大无线运营商中国移动(China Mobile)的网络兼容,基于这两个因素,投资者可以期待新iPhone异常火爆的销售情况。 But the device setting those records is itself likely to be just an incremental upgrade over its predecessor, the iPhone 4S. Indeed, if the latest version of Apple#39;s mobile operating system is any guide, the newest iPhone may not look that much different from smartphones Apple sold over three years ago. Granted, the screen is expected to be larger and the device thinner. But the actual user experience isn#39;t expected to be very different. 但创造这项纪录的新款iPhone本身却可能只是iPhone 4S的“增量升级”版。实际上,如果从苹果最新版移动操作系统来判断的话,那么新款iPhone可能与苹果过去三年来售出的智能手机并无太大差别。当然,预计屏幕会变大,机身会变薄,但实际用户体验可能不会有太大不同。 In one sense, that is good since a reason the iPhone is so popular is that #39;it just works,#39; notes analyst Neil Mawston of research firm Strategy Analytics. The hardware, software and Apple services like iTunes are tightly integrated and easy to use, making the device appealing to a huge swath of non-techie users. That is opposed to, say, devices running Google#39;s Android operating system, where the ability to customize can complicate the user experience. 市场研究公司Strategy Analytics的分析师莫斯顿(Neil Mawston)指出,从某种意义上说,这是件好事,因为iPhone如此受欢迎的原因之一是它很好用。iPhone的硬件、软件和苹果iTunes等务融为一体,使用方便,因此大量并非热衷电子产品的用户也为之着迷。与之形成对比的是搭载谷歌(Google)安卓(Android)操作系统的手机,这些产品的定制功能可能会使用户体验复杂化。 In another sense, sticking to the iPhone#39;s traditional design is a problem, giving rivals a chance to jump ahead with new features. The Windows Phone operating system that Nokia uses has #39;live tiles#39; that display useful information or photos directly on the device#39;s home screen, not just dummy icons you have to touch to launch apps. The camera technology in Nokia#39;s latest device is also likely to be superior to Apple#39;s. And Nokia is showing its engineering prowess with, for instance, a touch screen that should work for users wearing winter gloves. Such subtle improvements have typically been the hallmark of devices designed under Steve Jobs. 从另一个层面来看,iPhone在设计上坚持走传统路线也有问题,这会给竞争对手一个推出新功能并领先苹果的机会。诺基亚(Nokia)使用的Windows Phone操作系统有可直接在手机主屏上显示有用信息或图片的“活动瓷片”(live tiles),而不仅仅是必须通过碰触才能启动应用程序的一个个图标。诺基亚最新手机采用的相机技术可能也比苹果先进。而且诺基亚目前正在展示其设计实力,如用户带着防寒手套也能用的触摸屏等。这类细微之处的改进历来都是乔布斯(Steve Jobs)生前在任时苹果产品所具有的特色。 Apple has other powerful advantages, including a huge ecosystem of apps. Android also has plenty, but Windows Phone lags far behind. Users that have downloaded lots of apps, not to mention other media from the iTunes store, may find themselves locked into using an iPhone. But if rivals surpass the iPhone in other crucial respects, it becomes harder for Apple to justify the price premium it charges wireless carriers to sell its devices. 此外,苹果也有其它强大的优势,包括巨大的应用生态系统。安卓也有很多应用软件,但Windows Phone在这方面则远远落后。那些下载了很多应用软件(更不必说从iTunes商店下载其它媒体内容)的用户可能会发现自己已离不开iPhone了。但如果竞争对手在其它关键领域超越iPhone,苹果向无线运营商明其高价位属于合理范畴的难度就会增大。 Not long ago, Nokia and BlackBerry looked nearly as impregnable as Apple does today. Apple#39;s dominant ecosystem should prevent it ever suffering a similar decline. Yet the fact that it finds itself in a hit-driven business is perhaps good reason its shares trade for just 12 times earnings for the fiscal year ending September 2013 despite growing faster than any other company in the Samp;P 500 in 2011, ex-acquisitions. 不久以前,诺基亚和黑莓(BlackBerry)也曾与如今的苹果一样,有着看似几乎固若金汤的地位。苹果所主导的应用生态系统应该会防止它重蹈黑莓的覆辙。不过,苹果从事的是一个需要大量人气的行业,这也许就很好地解释了为何该公司根据截至2013年9月财年预期收益计算的市盈率仅为12倍,尽管苹果的增长速度超过2011年标普500指数(Samp;P 500)任何一家成分股公司(不包括发生收购的公司)。 Once upon a time, Apple revolutionized cellphones by turning them into hand-held computers. Resorting to evolutionary design changes would give rivals an opening. 曾几何时,苹果革命性地将手机转变为掌上电脑。而在设计方面采取“增量式改变”将让苹果的竞争对手有机可乘。 The next iPhone should again propel Apple#39;s stock and its sales. That may be the time for Apple shareholders to take their money off the table. 下一款iPhone应该会推动苹果股票及销售再上新台阶,或许这也是苹果股东揣好赚到的钱走路的时候了。 /201209/199147

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