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2019年06月16日 18:58:16来源:飞度快对话网

阿富汗战争:鼓起你的勇气这是一个血腥的阿富汗一周,尤其是英国,这个时候不能失去信心。据说阿富汗是帝国的坟场。19世纪这里是英军的伤心之地,20世纪又成了前苏联的伤心之地。阿富汗人以凶猛残暴著称。经过8年令人沮丧的战争,人们很容易地认为,北约在重蹈过去在兴都库什群山中灾难的覆辙。现在不是灰心丧气的时候。安全要改善,经济活动要鼓励,政权要巩固,叛乱分子要利诱分化。但是,要让这一切发生,必须让塔利班看到,阿富汗政府和她的外国盟友正在赢得胜利,而不是失败。The war in Afghanistan: Hold your nerveIt has been a bloody month in Afghanistan but America’s allies, especially Britain, should not lose heartAFGHANISTAN is said to be the graveyard (墓地)of empires. The British army came to grief there in the 19th century, the Soviet one in the 20th. Such was Afghans’ reputation for ferocity(凶暴) that Rudyard Kipling told those left wounded on Afghanistan’s plains: “Jest roll to your rifle and blow out your brains.” These days British soldiers are again dying in Afghanistan, along with Americans, Canadians and many others. The Taliban are resurgent(复活的,复兴的). Each fighting season is bloodier than the last. President Barack Obama is deploying an extra 20,000 troops there this year. But some allies are aly on their way out. The Netherlands will withdraw fighting forces next year, followed by Canada in 2011. Now the public in Britain, which has the second-largest contingent in Afghanistan, is agonising over the country’s role in the war after a dful month in Helmand (see article).After eight years of disheartening warfare, it is tempting to see NATO’s mission as a repeat of past misadventures(运气不佳的遭遇) in the Hindu Kush. The Soviets lost even though they had more troops than NATO has today, a more powerful Afghan army and were supported by a cadre of motivated Afghan communists. But such comparisons are wrong. Unlike the anti-Soviet mujahideen, who were backed by America, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, the Taliban have no superpower sponsor. In the 1980s Soviet aircraft were shot down with American-made Stinger missiles; today NATO has mastery of the skies. The Taliban are a Pushtun (普什图语的)faction, not a national movement; their insurgency is largely limited to the southern half of the country.Afghans may feel anger over the death of civilians killed by foreign forces, frustration at the chaos and insecurity, and dismay (气馁)at the corruption of President Hamid Karzai’s government. But opinion polls say that most want Western troops to stay; they remember the misery of the civil war and the oppression of Taliban rule too well. They want the West to do a better job of securing the country.The price of friendshipFor America Afghanistan is a war of necessity; it is from there that Osama bin Laden ordered the attacks of September 11th 2001. For many European allies, though, it is less vital—a war of solidarity(团结) with America, a war of choice. Such operations quickly turn unpopular when they go badly, and governments tend to inflate their aims. Gordon Brown, the British prime minister, talks of promoting “an emerging democracy”.Critics say the effort is misconceived: the real danger is in Pakistan, where al-Qaeda’s leaders are now hiding. But helping Pakistan fight Islamic militants will only be harder if the Taliban and al-Qaeda can claim victory in Afghanistan. Others say the West is being over-ambitious. It can never hope to create a stable democracy in Afghanistan; all it needs is a small contingent(条件) to protect Kabul, and some special forces and bombers to deal with any returning al-Qaeda fighters. But such a minimalist (极简抽象的)approach is what allowed the Taliban to regroup.The cost to NATO countries is immediately apparent: tens of billions of dollars and the lives of more than 1,200 soldiers. The cost of leaving is harder to measure but is probably larger: the return of the Taliban to power; an Afghan civil war; the utter destabilisation of nuclear-armed Pakistan; the restoration of al-Qaeda’s Afghan haven; the emboldening of every jihadist in the world; and the weakening of the West’s friends.America will naturally take on most of the task in Afghanistan. But allies are vital. They share the burden, they confer political legitimacy(合法性) and their joint commitment makes it harder for too many to drop out. Yet some are expending a disproportionate amount of blood. Britain is among them, but it is not alone. As a share of their population Canada, Denmark and Estonia have suffered more military fatalities.Friends and alliesBritain’s ambition to be a global “force for good” comes at a cost. As America’s best friend, with privileged access to intelligence, it feels compelled to take part in America’s wars. As the most capable militarily of NATO’s European members (together with France), it helps to rally others. But fighting in Afghanistan is not just about prestige. With its large population of Pakistani origin, it has much at stake in helping to maintain the stability of Afghanistan and Pakistan. London has been attacked by al-Qaeda more recently than New York.So what should Britain do? To begin with, the government must act with conviction(信念), rather than wish the problem away. It cannot be at war with a peacetime mind-set. As a share of the budget, defence spending has shrunk since 2001. The defence ministry is a parking place for weak ministers or a stepping-stone for strong ones. Priority should be given to manning fully the army’s ranks, and probably expanding them. More must be done to provide helicopters, transport aircraft, drones and better-protected vehicles. This would wreck budgets and upset the navy and air force. So be it. Losing a war is even more demoralising than losing ships or jets. The government should have announced a Strategic Defence Review a long time ago, not delayed it until after the election.At the very least Mr Brown should agree to the army’s request for a permanent uplift of 2,000 troops for Helmand. Western forces are never going to garrison the whole province, let alone Afghanistan. But what they hold must be held securely. And above all, they must train and expand the Afghan army and police so they can gradually take over. That will not be cheap, but it is the best way to bring home Western troops.In many ways, the push to pacify(平息) Afghanistan is only just starting, now that the war in Iraq is ending. America’s marines launched a big operation in Helmand on July 2nd. Afghanistan’s presidential elections take place next month. It will not be clear until the autumn, and probably not until late next year, whether Mr Obama’s “surge” has worked.This is not the time to lose heart. Security must be improved, economic activity encouraged, government strengthened and insurgents offered inducements to defect. But for those things to happen, the Taliban must see that the Afghan government and its foreign friends are winning, not losing. Keke View:当美国总统布什向世界宣布美军要在阿富汗打一场样式很特殊的反恐怖战争,以彻底消灭制造九一一事件的幕后黑手及其同盟者塔利班武装之时,有眼光的战略家们都认为美国无疑会赢得这场战争。但是自10月7日美军开打以后,特别是反塔联盟在战争中发挥的作用,使世人愈感到始料不及,战争一次又一次地出现戏剧性变化,许多分析家们的预测都跟不上形势的发展。 /200907/78690。

  • Women smoking - they've overtaken men in the habit in the north east partly because of influences on girls which are 'more insidious than mere peer pressure'. 英国东北部的女性比男性更嗜好抽烟,部分由于女性“对社交压力更敏感”。  Their survey has just found that women smokers now outnumber men in the region, which according to Dr Andrew Russell of the uni's Institute of Hazard, Risk and Resilienceis globally rare. Stress and its worsening by recession almost certainly play a part, but why more on women? What other causes may there be? Andrew Russell. 士进行了一项“危害、风险和恢复力”的调查,调查结果发现,女性吸烟人数在该地区已经超过男性,而这一现象在全球非常罕见。由于经济不景气而造成的巨大压力是导致吸烟人数上升的一大原因,但为什么增多的吸烟者会是女性?这背后还有什么其他原因吗? A public discussion tomorrow, Tuesday, organised by the institute and Durham city's Forum for Health hopes to make some progress in finding out. It's being held at the Dales Suite, Collingwood College, Durham University and organisers are looking for leads to new empirical studies, as well as giving their own opinions and hearing others. 学院组织了一次公开讨论会,将于明天即周二展开。达拉谟城市的健康搜查论坛希望经过这次讨论会,能够对导致女性吸烟人数居高不下的原因有所发现。此次讨论会选址于达拉谟大学考林伍德学院中的Dales套房,发起者们希望能探讨出一条引领大家通往新的实研究的道路,同时也将在会议中表达各自的观点、聆听他人的想法。 Here's what Dr Russell says in advance: 下面是Russell士的事先讲话:  "Men's smoking rates have declined dramatically over the past few years in the north east and now appear to be lower than the national average. Women's have not declined nearly so fast - they appear to have plateaued at a level higher than the national average.”  “近几年,东北地区的男性吸烟率已大幅下降,目前已降至英国平均吸烟率以下。而女性吸烟率并没有这么迅速的削减,目前已大致稳定在一个高于平均吸烟率的水平。”  “Smoking rates are highest in areas of greatest economic deprivation and also go up in times of recession.We need to consider whether for some women, smoking is a response to stress in their lives,one of the few 'pleasures' that are relatively easily acquired.”  “那些经济匮乏最严重的地区往往也是吸烟率最高的地区,并且随着经济衰退吸烟率逐渐上升。我们要考虑的是,对于女性而言,她们是否将吸烟作为生活压力的一种应对方式,一种少有的又较易获得的方式。”  "but the tobacco industry has had a large part to play in encouraging more women to take up smoking by perpetuating the myth of smoking as glamorous, risqué and a form of defiance.New brands come out all the time specifically aimed at women."  "但是烟草业却在诱使更多女性吸烟方面有着很大功劳,他们素来将吸烟这一行为美化成迷人而又叛逆的。针对女性的烟草品牌也总是层出不穷地出现。”  "We're proposing a cross-cultural study looking at women's relationship to tobacco in other societies in order to understand how best to tackle the situation in the North East of England. I'll be outlining my plans at the meeting."  “我们提出了一个跨文化的课题,主要关于其他社会中女性与吸烟的关系,我们希望以此来了解怎样能最便利地解决英国东北地区的情况。届时我会在讨论中列举出我的具体计划。”  His colleague Dr Sue Lewis has meanwhile specialised on trying to find out why women and girls are getting the habit so young. She says:  同时,他的同事Sue Lewis士,正在研究女性和女孩养成这一陋习如此之早的原因。  "We need to understand the particular issues faced by young smokers – and those trying not to be smokers – in disadvantaged communities; what particular pressures they faced when they started smoking, what factors encouraged continued smoking and what makes it particularly difficult to quit. ”  “我们要了解年轻吸烟者所面临的具体问题,以及那些生活在贫困地区的不想成为烟鬼的人们。究竟是什么样的压力让他们开始吸烟?又是什么样的因素促使他们持续不断地吸?让戒烟变得如此之难?” /201110/158982。
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