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在泉州地区附属第一医院痘痘泉州磨骨手术Europe Mafias on the move欧洲 黑手党正在扩张Northward creep罪恶之手伸向北方In Italy Mafia-organised crime is no longer only a southern phenomenon意大利黑手党犯罪不再局限于南部地区TERRACINA is a sprawling town south of Rome, popular as a destination for beachside weekends. Rivarolo Canavese nestles in the shadow of the Alps north of Turin. It has Roman ruins, a handsome 14th-century castle and fewer than 12,000 inhabitants. Neither of these very different places is in the traditional, southern heartland of Italy’s mafias. Yet both have recently been tainted—and dramatically so—by organised crime.TERRACINA是罗马南部的一个外延小镇,拥有非常出名的周末海滩。Rivarolo Canavese坐落于都灵的南部,阿尔卑斯山脚下,那儿还残留着古罗马的遗迹,矗立着14世纪风格的城堡还有不到12,000的人口。这些地方和意大利黑手党传统的南部中心地带截然不同,但最近,这两处地方都受到了组织犯罪污浊的侵蚀,且形势严峻。In August Gaetano Marino, suspected to be a leading member of the Neapolitan Camorra, died when he was shot after being lured off a beach in Terracina on which families were relaxing in the sun. And earlier this year the inhabitants of Rivarolo Canavese learned that their town council had been put under direct central government control, following an investigation that found evidence of infiltration by the ‘Ndrangheta, the mafia of Calabria.Gaetano Marino 被怀疑是那不勒斯卡莫拉党的头领,八月的一天他和家人在Terracina的海滩晒太阳,却被诱离海滩杀。此外,今年早些时候,Rivarolo Canavese的居民知悉市镇委员会改由中央政府直接管辖。因为此前一项调查发现了卡拉布里行省的‘Ndrangheta黑暗势力渗透的据。The fact that the ‘Ndrangheta, a crime syndicate born in the toe of the Italian boot, should be found in cahoots with local politicians in a town 60km (38 miles) from the French border is striking evidence of something that is gradually becoming clear: the mafia is no longer a southern phenomenon in Italy, but a national one.‘Ndrangheta犯罪团伙起源于于靴型意大利版图的“脚趾头部位”。据显示他们竟然与距离法国边界60公里(38英里)的一小镇的政客勾结。这一发现拨云见日:黑手党不再局限于南部意大利,已蔓延向全国。Of the 22 local authorities disbanded last year because of alleged infiltration by organised crime, four were outside the south. What is happening along the coast near Rome is unclear. Some investigators fear a turf war may have started between local hoodlums and Camorra mobsters intent on expanding their influence.去年有22个地方政权被遣散就是因为被指控受到组织犯罪的渗透,其中有四个地方不在南部地区。靠近罗马的沿海地区依旧迷雾重重,一些调查员担心一场地盘争夺战已经在身为地头蛇的当地暴徒和旨在拓展势力范围的卡莫拉组织之间展开。Other crime syndicates have aly tried to establish a presence in the capital. In 2007 Cosa Nostra was found to be running a money-laundering operation from premises cheekily situated opposite the office of the prime minister. Two years later one of Rome’s most famous bars, the Cafe de Paris on the leafy Via Veneto, was closed after it was discovered that it had become a front for the ‘Ndrangheta. (It has since re-opened and uses a variety of products and produce from firms that have been confiscated from mobsters.)其他犯罪团伙甚至试图在首都发展其势力。在2007年,Cosa Nostra竟厚颜无耻地在首相府的对面建立洗钱基地。此事两年后,位于树木繁茂的威尼托区,一罗马著名酒吧 Cafe de Paris 被封,理由是该酒吧为‘Ndrangheta提供庇护。(此后,该酒吧又重新开张,使用的很多产品都由从匪帮收缴的公司生产。)The situation in Italy’s north is clearer. It had long been known that criminals from the south had put down roots in the richest parts of the country. A well-intentioned, if misguided, policy dating from the 1950s led to the removal of many suspected mobsters from their areas of operation and their “obligatory sojourn” elsewhere in Italy under curfew.意大利北部形式已逐渐明朗。南部罪犯植根于全国最富饶之地的事实早已为人所知。追溯到19世纪50年代的宵禁,政策本意虽好,但却是错的,这使得可疑匪帮离开原本活动范围来到意大利其他的“强制逗留地”。Thanks to three recent and wide-ranging investigations, it is now clear that the ‘Ndrangheta not only has acquired an unrivalled ascendancy in the north, but that its presence and influence is far greater than had been suspected (or acknowledged by northern politicians). Police and prosecutors claim to have identified no fewer than 24 locali (‘Ndrangheta clans) in Lombardy, the wealthy region around Milan, and Piedmont, of which Turin is the capital.正由于近期三项大范围的调查,情况现已清晰。‘Ndrangheta 的成长在北方无人能及,甚至他的势力已经远远超出估计(或者说超出北方政客的认识)。警察和检察官声称,在伦巴第、米兰附近富裕地区、以及以都灵为省会城市的皮得蒙,能够确定是locali(‘Ndrangheta 家族)的不下24人。The first two investigations, which targeted Lombardy, led in November 2011 to the conviction of 110 defendants. The written judgment, published in June, is a profoundly unsettling document. It refers to more than 70 instances of suspected intimidation in and around the country’s financial capital involving “firearms, ammunition and, in some cases, explosives”. On September 18th, a 75-year old businessman was shot in the leg near Milan in what looked suspiciously like a mafia ambush.前两项调查都在伦巴第展开,于2011年11月坐实了110名被告人的罪行。书面判决书在6月公布,着实让人不安。书中公布了逾70起发生在全国金融之都及周边地区的涉嫌恐吓犯罪行为,其中涉及、弹药、甚至在一些案件中炸药的使用。9月18日,一名75岁商人在米兰附近被一射中大腿,怀疑是黑手党伏击。The third investigation—Operation Minotaur, focused on Piedmont—led to the arrest of 172 people. It was this that prompted the disbanding of the council in Rivarolo Canavese. There, ‘Ndrangheta bosses are said to have worked with a local politician to get him elected to the European Parliament. One was overheard by investigators to boast proudly that he and his men could command 11,000 votes from towns in the Alpine foothills.第三项调查代号“米诺陶行动”,聚焦于皮德蒙,协助逮捕了172名罪犯。正是由于这项调查,才加快了Rivarolo Canavese委员会的遣散。据说,在Rivarolo Canavese,Ndrangheta 的领导层与当地一名政客狼狈为奸,给政客投票使其进入欧洲议会。还有一件调查者无意中听到的事,一名黑帮高层自豪的吹嘘:在阿尔卑斯山麓区域,只要我一声令下,就有11000人为我投票。翻译:郁炳睿译文属译生译世 /201607/455011泉州德化县激光点痣多少钱 Curbing climate change控制气候变化The deepest cuts一切为了减排Our guide to the actions that have done the most to slow global warming我们的行为指南已经最大限度减缓了全球变暖ON SEPTEMBER 23rd 120-odd presidents and prime ministers will gather in New York for a UN meeting on climate change. It is the first time the subject has brought so many leaders together since the ill-fated Copenhagen summit of . Now, as then, they will assert that reining in global warming is a political priority. Some may commit their governments to policies aimed at reducing greenhouse-gas emissions. What few will say is how many tonnes of carbon dioxide these will save—because they almost never do.9月23日,120多位国家总统和首相将会汇聚纽约联合国总部,就气候变化议题举行会议。这是自年一无所获的哥本哈根气候大会之后,国家元首们第一次为了此项议题聚会。就像当时一样,他们如今也一致认为控制全球变暖是政治的头等大事。一些元首们也许会承诺实行以削减温室气体排放为目标的相关政策。但很少人能明确说出这些政策最终将减少多少吨二氧化碳排放量—因为根本没效果。According to scientists, cutting carbon-dioxide emissions is an essential part of reducing catastrophic risks from climate change. Yet governments are persistently averse to providing estimates of how much carbon a policy saves. That may be because, in countries where climate change is controversial, it makes more sense to talk about the other benefits a scheme offers rather than its effect on carbon. Or it may be that, in countries which are enthusiastic about renewable energy, pointing out that it may not save that much carbon is seen as unhelpful. Or perhaps governments think climate change is so serious that all measures must be taken, regardless of cost (though their overall lacklustre record suggests this is not the case).科学家表示,减少二氧化碳排放量是缓解由气候变化导致的灾难性后果的重要一步。但政府自始至终都不愿意预估他们的政策到底能少排多少碳。这也许是因为,在那些对气候变化仍存争议的国家,政府更愿意显示他们实行的其他福利政策是多么有效,而非低碳减排。或者在那些热衷于再生能源的国家,指出政府政策并没有减少那么多碳排放也于事无补。或者政府认为气候变化太重要了,可以不惜一切代价来完成(不过总的来看,根据他们拖拖拉拉的表现,这是不可能的)。Whatever the reason, the end result is that while the worlds governments have hundreds of policies for tackling climate change, some of them very expensive—China, America and the European Union spend 0 billion a year on subsidising renewable energy—it is hard to say which policies are having the greatest effect.不管什么原因,结果就是尽管世界各个政府出台了几百条治理气候变化的政策,有的还代价高昂—中国、美国和欧盟每年花费1400亿补贴再生能源——很难说哪些政策是最有效的。So The Economist has made a stab at a global comparison of carbon-mitigation efforts. Chart 1 is the result. It ranks 20 policies and courses of action according to how much they have done to reduce the atmospheres stock of greenhouse gases. We have used figures from governments, the EU and UN agencies. As far as we know, this exercise has not been carried out before.因此,《经济学家》尝试制作了一张全球各国碳减排成果的比较图。图表1是结果,列出了前20个政策和行动方案以及每个政策方案的大气层温室气体的减少量。我们使用了政府、欧盟和联合国各机构公布的数据。据我们所知,以前还没有人做过这样的比较。Apples, meet oranges当苹果遇见橘子First, a health warning: the policies and actions on our list are not strictly comparable. Some are global, some regional and some national. Some are long-standing; some new. A couple are not policies at all, such as the collapse of the Soviet Union, which led to the closure of polluting factories and to inefficient state farms reverting to grassland, locking up carbon.首先有个温馨提示:本次列出的政策和行动方案严格来说是不可比较的。一些是全球范围的,一些是区域性或国家层面的。一些是长期执行的,另一些是新政。有几条并不能算是政策,比如由苏联解体导致的污染工厂关门、效率底下的国有农场复归草原,锁住了碳。And the numbers almost all come with caveats. It is fairly easy to estimate how much carbon a new field full of solar cells or a nuclear-power plant saves by looking at the amount of electricity it produces in a year and how much carbon would have been emitted if fossil fuels had been used instead, based on the local mix of coal, gas and oil. But as Paul Joskow of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology has pointed out, the standard “levelised” calculations, which divide the total amount of power a plant will produce over its lifetime by its total lifetime cost, are a poor way to compare fossil fuels and renewable energy.这些数据都显示出了警告信号。很容易估算出一片新铺满太阳能板或盖满核能工厂的旷野减少了多少碳排放,只要看看它每年发了多少电就可以了;另外,根据当地煤、气、油的混合状况也能很简单地估计出如果以化石燃料替代之,将多排放多少碳。然而,正如麻省理工学院的Paul Joskow指出的那样,标准的“水平化计算”——即用一座工厂整个使用年限所耗费的成本除以其产生的全部功率值,并不是一种比较化石燃料和再生能源的好方法。Other measures have problems, too. Take the effects of fuel-efficiency standards. Would companies have curtailed their cars emissions anyway to sell more of them to cost- and mileage-conscious drivers? And how much has better fuel efficiency encouraged drivers to drive farther?其他的测量方法也有问题。以燃料效率标准为例。司机对成本和公里数很敏感,公司会为了向他们销售更多汽车而减少汽车排量么?更高的燃料利用率又在多大程度上鼓励了司机多开车?A further complication is that many policies have benefits beyond—or indeed closer to hand than—those they offer in terms of climate. Burning less coal saves lives in the near future as well as reducing climate risks in decades to come. Saving forests preserves wildlife, not just carbon.更加复杂的是,很多政策所带来的好处不仅仅是治理气候。燃烧更少的煤炭可以在不远的将来挽救很多生命,也能减少未来几十年内气候变化带来的各种危机。拯救森林不止是控制碳排放,也能保护野生动物。So our table should be treated with caution. It is only safe to say that one policy is better than another in climate terms if it beats it by a wide margin.所以这次谈判应该谨慎对待。只有当某个政策提供了更多的回旋余地,才能说它是更好的。As it happens, though, there are some very wide margins to be found. One policy stands head and shoulders above all others. And it is one that few people other than climate-policy specialists will have thought of in this context: the Montreal protocol, a 1987 agreement to phase out substances such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) used in air conditioners, refrigerators and so on. It was enacted to limit the damage such substances were doing to the ozone layer, a goal which it has achieved.正好,我们还有很多潜力有待发掘。有一个政策尤其值得注意,尽管除了环境政策研究专家以外其他人很少考虑到这一点:在蒙特利尔议定书中,一份1987年签订的协议要求逐步淘汰空调、电冰箱等家电中的氯氟化碳成分。这项协议意在防止此类物质继续损害臭氧层,目前这个目标已经达成。Like carbon dioxide and many other gases emitted by industry and agriculture—methane and nitrous oxide, for example—CFCs are greenhouse gases. And they are extremely potent ones, causing thousands of times more warming per molecule than carbon dioxide does. That means stopping CFC production, which was in the range of millions of tonnes a year, delivered a climate benefit equivalent to cutting carbon-dioxide emissions by billions of tonnes.氟氯化碳就像二氧化碳和其他被工业农业排放出来的气体(例如甲烷和一氧化二氮)一样,都属于温室气体。它们破坏力巨大,每分子所产生的热量比二氧化碳要高几千倍。这也就是意味着每年停止产生数百万吨的氟氯化碳给缓解气候变化带来的好处,相当于减排数十亿吨二氧化碳。Collateral benefits好处多多Guus Velders of the Dutch National Institute for Public Health and the Environment has compared the warming effect that would have come about if the emissions of such chemicals had continued to grow at the rate they were growing before the protocol with what has come about thanks to their banning. The net effect is equivalent to that of a whopping 135 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide. That is more than twice todays total annual greenhouse-gas emissions, which are equivalent to about 50 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide (carbon dioxide itself makes up about three-quarters of that, with methane, nitrous oxide and some gases used in industry making up the rest). Durwood Zaelke of the Institute for Governance and Sustainable Development, a think-tank, says that if CFCs were uncontrolled the annual figure would be 8 billion tonnes higher. The Montreal protocol has had nearly as big an effect as all the rest of our list put together.荷兰国家公共健康和环境研究所的Guus Velders估算了如果这些化学气体按照协议书禁令出台之前的速度排放所带来的温室效应:其净排量相当于1350亿吨二氧化碳,比现在每年排放的温室气体总量(500亿吨)的两倍还要多(二氧化碳占温室气体排放量的四分之三,其余的是甲烷、一氧化二氮和其他工业气体)。“治理和可持续发展智库”的Durwood Zaelke表示,如果氟氯化碳的排放未受控制,则每年会多排放80亿吨。蒙特利尔协议书的效果比其他所有协议的总和还要显著。Trailing some way behind the Montreal protocol is a small group of measures—not really climate policies—that have been responsible for avoiding between 4% and 7% of greenhouse-gas emissions. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency, nuclear power avoided the production of 2.2 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide in 2010—that is, emissions would have been 2.2 billion tonnes higher if the same amount of electricity had been produced by non-nuclear plants. Energy from dams and other hydroelectric sources avoided 2.8 billion tonnes (though emissions of methane from the reservoirs behind some of those dams mean the net effects were less than that). Between them they generated 6,000 terawatt-hours of electricity in 2011, compared with 450TWhrs for wind and less than 60TWhrs for solar. The high rate at which new wind and solar capacity is being built will eat into this lead, but it will take some time to overturn it.蒙特利尔协议书之后的其余各项措施——不完全是气候政策——也减少了4%~7%的温室气体排放。根据国际原子能机构的研究,核能在2010年减排了22亿吨二氧化碳——即如果由非核能工厂发电,二氧化碳将增加22亿吨。大坝和其他水利发电减排了29亿吨二氧化碳(如果计入大坝后面蓄水库里产生的甲烷,则净减排量要少一些)。这些在2011年共发电6000太瓦时,相比之下,风力发电贡献了450太瓦时,太阳能发电则为60太瓦时。风能和太阳能发电会占有越来越高的比重,但这还需要时间彻底扭转目前的趋势。The other item in this group is something of a cheat. In 2007 Su Wei of Chinas foreign ministry said that his countrys one-child policy, by reducing the number of births between the late 1970s and the mid-2000s by 300m, had reduced carbon emissions by 1.3 billion tonnes in 2005 (because there were fewer people to consume goods which generated greenhouse gases in their production). Taking this argument further, one could say that the fall in global fertility since 1960 cut emissions even more. That is not exactly a climate policy. But it is a reminder that greenhouse gases are powerfully influenced by factors far beyond the scope of climate-change policies.另一项政策则不太切题。在2007年,中国外交部的苏伟表示,从 20世纪70年代到本世纪头十年的中期,中国的出生人口因独生子女政策减少了3亿,到2005年,碳排放量因此减少了13亿吨(因为生产商品的过程往往产生温室气体,人越少,消耗商品越少)。按照这个说法进一步思考,可以说,1960年后全球生育率的下降为减排做出的贡献更大。那压根不是气候政策。但是,这表明温室气体排放量会受到非气候变化政策因素的强烈影响。Three other lessons emerge. First, policies to slow or reverse deforestation are more important than one might expect. Trees absorb carbon as they grow and release it when they are cut down. According to a recent study in Science, declining deforestation in Brazil meant that the country produced 3.2 billion tonnes less atmospheric carbon dioxide between 2005 and 2013 than it would have if the tree-felling had continued unabated. That is 400m tonnes a year. The slowdown in deforestation in tropical countries is one of the reasons that the conversion of forests to farmland now accounts for only 11% of greenhouse-gas emissions globally, much less than 20 years ago.三个教训值得学习。第一,减缓或逆转森林伐木的政策比预想更重要。树木生长时能吸收二氧化碳,被砍伐时则会释放二氧化碳。据《科学》一项新研究表明,巴西实行减少森林砍伐的政策后,2005年到2013年间,其排放到大气中的二氧化碳比不实行政策前少了32亿吨。年排放量为4亿吨。林地转耕地的温室气体排放量现在仅占全球总排放量的11%,比20年前少了很多,而热带国家森林开伐的节奏放缓是缘由之一。The other reason for deforestations dramatically reduced share of total emissions, though, is that industrial emissions of carbon dioxide have continued to grow rapidly. The rise is not as fast as it might have been. Rules that make vehicles more efficient and improve the energy efficiency of buildings and appliances have done more than might be expected. America has been setting standards for vehicle greenhouse-gas emissions and fuel efficiency since the mid 1970s; the current rules are forecast to reduce carbon-dioxide emissions by 6 billion tonnes in 2012-25, meaning by about 460m tonnes a year. Americas Department of Transportation reckons that overall such rules have reduced carbon-dioxide emissions by a cumulative 14 billion tonnes. Europes equivalent regulations for passenger cars and light trucks do less (European vehicles were more efficient to start with) but are still respectable; being adopted by overseas manufacturers who want to sell cars in Europe gives them an unquantified extra clout.导致森林砍伐二氧化碳排放量占比大幅下降的另一个原因在于,二氧化碳的工业排放量持续快速上涨。增长速度与预期有差异。提高交通工具使用效率以及提高房屋与电器的能源效率的政策比预期更有效。20世纪70年代起,美国为交通工具的温室气体排放以及燃料效率制定了标准。当前的政策可以预测,2012-2025年间,二氧化碳排放量将减少60亿吨,相当于一年排放4.6亿吨。美国交通部估计,总体来说,这些政策已累计减少二氧化碳排放量140亿吨。欧洲针对轿车和轻型货车出台的类似政策,减排量不如美国(欧洲的交通工具之前更有效率),但依然显著。这些政策也适用于想在欧洲卖车的海外制造商,这部分影响力无法量化。Their time will come他们的时机将会来临New EU rules on the design of boilers and water heaters are expected to save 136m tonnes of carbon dioxide a year within six years. Chinas Development Research Centre and the World Bank say that on the basis of 2010 figures energy-efficiency targets for Chinese state-owned enterprises save about the same amount; that scheme has recently been much expanded.欧盟针对锅炉以及热水器设计的新规定,有望在六年内将年碳排放量减少1.36亿吨。中国发展研究中心及世界表示,根据2010年的数据,中国国有企业的能源效率目标也减少了相当量的碳排放,并近日计划扩大这一目标。Subsidies for solar and wind power do less than you might expect, considering the attention they receive. The European Environment Agency calculates that between mid-2008 and 2012, what it calls changes in the carbon intensity of energy (mainly, the rise in renewables) accounted for a third of the decline in carbon-dioxide emissions in the EU. Emissions fell 350m tonnes in that period, so renewable policies seem to be responsible for about 30m fewer tonnes of carbon dioxide a year, making them less effective than energy-efficiency measures.以太阳能及风能补贴政策受到的关注度来看,其表现低于预期。欧洲环境署估计,在2008年中期到2012年,被其称为能源碳强度(主要指可再生能源的增加)引起的变化占欧盟减排量的三分之一。在此期间,排放量下降3.5亿吨。因此,可再生能源政策可以解释约3300万以下的减排量,这使得此项政策不如能源效率政策有效。This estimate may be low. A separate calculation by Germanys environment ministry puts the figure for Germany alone at 100m tonnes in 2012. But even if the EU estimate is only half what it should be, renewables would still fall short of other carbon-mitigation policies. They are also extremely pricey. The cost of Germanys Energiewende (its transformation to a renewables-based electricity system) is 16 billion ( billion) a year. The cost of helping developing countries phase out CFCs under the Montreal protocol was just .4 billion all-told from 1990-2010. The Amazon Fund, which has done much to fight deforestation in Brazil, has mostly been funded by the Norwegian government at a cost of just 0m over 11 years.数据可能被低估了。另一个由德国环境部估计的数据显示,在2012年,仅德国的可再生能源政策产生的减排量就达1亿吨。但是,即使欧盟的估计仅为实际的一半,可再生能源政策的减排效果也远不如其他减排政策。这些政策的成本也很高。德国的能源转型成本(以新能源为基础的电力系统改革)是每年160万欧元(210万美元)。1990-2010年间,德国根据蒙特利尔议定书,帮助发展中国家逐步淘汰氟氯碳化物的总成本仅24亿美元。在巴西,奋力对抗森林砍伐的亚马逊基金会主要得到挪威政府的资助,11余年的成本仅为7.6亿美元。Over the next few years, the relative weights of all these policies will change. Nuclear energy is being phased out in Germany and may not recover to its pre-Fukushima heights in Japan. Although it is growing in China, its share of worldwide electricity generation—currently about a seventh—is likely to decline. The same may be true of hydropower. The share of solar and wind power, on the other hand, will rise as costs fall and capacity increases (installed capacity for these renewables doubled in 2012-14).在接下来的几年,所有政策的相对权重会发生变化。德国会逐步废除核能,日本对核能的重视程度也可能无法恢复到福岛核泄漏之前的水平。虽然在中国,核能政策的权重在不断增强,但其在世界范围内的发电份额—约七分之——可能下降。水力发电可能也面临一样的遭遇。另一方面,由于成本下降、容量增大(这几类可再生能源的装机容量在2012-2014翻倍)太阳能和风能的份额可能会增加。The Economist asked Climate Action Tracker, a group of scientists who study emissions policies and actions, to calculate the policies likely to have the biggest impact in 2020. Their findings, in chart 2, suggest that the influence of the EUs renewables regime will grow considerably, though Europe will still be far from the zero-carbon energy system greens long for. Chinese efforts to boost renewables and energy efficiency are also likely to start bearing a lot more fruit. So, they think, could the UNs Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), which finances greenhouse-gas reduction measures in developing countries to offset emissions in rich ones.本刊邀请来自气候行动追踪组织一群研究排放政策和行动的科学家,估计2020年最可能产生最大影响的政策。他们的结果(如图2)表示,虽然欧洲依然达不到零碳排放能源系统的要求,欧盟可再生能源制度的影响力会大幅增强。中国推进可再生能源以及能源效率的政策也很可能产生更多的成效。因此,他们在想,资助发展中国家温室气体减排措施的联合国清洁发展机制是否可以补偿发达国家的排放量。Much more to do任重道远These estimates work on the basis of current policies. But one possible new measure would make a big difference. Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are ozone-friendly replacements for CFCs, and are one of the fastest-growing greenhouse gases, having risen 40% since 1990. Emissions of HFCs are unrestricted, though CDM investments are used to reduce them in some cases. If the Montreal protocol were quickly amended to include them, says Mr Zaelke, it might do almost as much for greenhouse-gas emissions in the next 35 years as it did in 1990-2010.这些估计都是基于当前的政策。但是,一项合理的新政策将会有重大意义。氢氟碳化物不破坏臭氧层,是对氟氯碳化物的替代品,也是增长最快的温室气体之一。1990年后,其排放量增长了40%。清洁发展机制曾投资减少一定程度的氢氟碳化物量,但其排放量仍不受限制。Zaelke表示,如果蒙特利尔议定书经修正后包含了这些内容,今后35年的温室气体排放量将达到1990-2010的水平。Saving the equivalent of some 130 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide so cheaply would be a big win. But it is still only a tenth of what would need to be done to ensure that the temperature in 2100 is no more than 2C higher than it was at the time of the Industrial Revolution—the limit that the countries of the world have committed themselves to. Without the measures listed in chart 1 emissions might be equivalent to almost 70 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide a year, rather than 50 billion. But even the lower number is too high to meet the stated goal, and the overall trend is up, not down. World leaders gathering in New York are not only being vague about their climate policies. They are being dilatory, too.以如此低的成本减少约1300亿吨二氧化碳排放量意义重大。但是,若要保2100年地球温度与工业革命时期相比不超过2C——各国承诺的指标,其工作只完成了十分之一。如果没有表1列出的各项政策,年碳排放量大约为700亿吨,而不是500亿吨。但即使碳排放量减少,对于完成既定目标来说,排放量依然很高,而且,碳排放量的总趋势还在增加而不是减少。聚集在纽约的各国领导,不仅对其气候政策界定不清,行动上也不够积极。翻译:杨诗露;校对:黄梅译文属译生译世201506/379004在泉州耳廓整形

泉州地区洛江区冰点脱毛祛斑多少钱在泉州洛江区抽脂减肥多少钱 福建泉州欧菲医学美容医院什么时候建立

泉州省妇幼保健医院门诊部地图Now, a few tens of thousands of years ago, wolves and people started becoming friendly species.时至今日,数万年前,狼和人便慢慢演变成进化成为可以友好相处。You can imagine a person tossing a bone to a friendly wolf from time to time.你可以想象人们会时不时地向一只温顺的狼扔块骨头。But “friendly” is the key.但是“温顺”一词至关重要。Nobody ever gets close to a hostile wolf.没人会靠近一只充满敌意的狼。So over many thousands of years we would have been gradually selecting for certain behavioral traits-playfulness, low hostility, the ability to bond.因此,实际上,成千上万年以来,人类都在渐渐地、有意识地进行着选择,选择具有特定行为特征的狼群。这些特征包括爱嬉戏玩闹,温顺,合群。Very puppy-like behaviors! See whats happening?这些行为难道不像小吗?A species that resembles a wolf puppy that never grows up may have slowly evolved in this way.现在明白这是怎么回事了吗?就像这样,一种类似于狼崽的物种开始慢慢的进化着。That species would retain its puppy-like behaviors, such as barking, but never grow into growling, howling adult wolves.这一物种保留了那些幼崽般的行为特征,比如吠叫,它们也不会进化为嚎叫的成年狼。That species We would now call that species “dogs.”这一物种便是我们现在把它称之为“”的动物。201503/364092 Climate change气候变化Raise the green lanterns高举环保大旗China is using climate policy to push through domestic reforms中国以环境政策推动国内改革WHEN world leaders gathered in Paris to discuss cutting planet-heating emissions, a pall of smog hung over Beijing. In parts of the capital levels of fine particulate matter reached 30 times the limit deemed safe. Though air pollution and climate change are different things, Chinese citydwellers think of them in the same, poisoned breath. The murky skies seemed irreconcilable with the bright intentions promised in France.当各国领导人齐聚巴黎讨论有关减少温室气体排放的问题,北京被厚厚的雾霾笼罩。在首都的某些地方,大气细颗粒物的含量达到了最低安全指标的30倍。尽管空气污染和气候变化不是一件事,但生活在城市的中国居民认为他们都会在我们呼吸的过程中毒害我们的健康。灰蒙蒙的天空似乎和领导人在法国所承诺的美好意愿不太相符。Yet a marked change has taken place in Chinas official thinking. Where once China viewed international climate talks as a conspiracy to constrain its economy, it now sees a global agreement as helpful to its own development.然而中国官员的思维模式开始有了显著的变化。曾经中国认为国际气候谈判是一场阻碍其发展的鸿门宴,现在中国领导人将全球气候协议看成是有助其发展的一种推动。China accounts for two-thirds of the worlds increase in the carbon dioxide emitted since 2000. It has come a long way in recognising the problem. When China first joined international climate talks, the environment was just a minor branch of foreign policy. The ministry for environmental protection had no policymaking powers until 2008. Only in 2012 did public pressure force cities to publish air-pollution data.自2000年以来,全球三分之二二氧化碳排放量的增长量都来自中国。而中国在很长一段时间后才开始正视这个问题。当中国第一次参加国际气候谈判时,环境问题仅仅只是其外交政策的一个小分。环境保护部在2008年以前都没有制定政策的权利。而出于公众舆论的压力,各市政府在2012年才公布了空气污染数据。Yet today China pledges to cap carbon emissions by 2030 (reversing its former position that, as a developing power, it should not be bound to an absolute reduction); and it says it will cut its carbon intensity (that is, emissions per unit of GDP) by a fifth, as well as increase by the same amount the electricity generated from sources other than fossil fuels. The latest five-year plan, a blueprint for the Communist Partys intentions that was unveiled last month, contains clear policy prescriptions for making economic development more environmentally friendly.但是中国决定在2030年前控制碳排放(该决定与中国过往的立场完全不同,中国之前的立场是作为发展中国家的中国不应该被规定做出绝对数目的减排目标),宣布大幅减少碳浓度(即每单位GDP的排放量)达五分之一,同时中国将增加五分之一用除化石燃料以外的清洁能源来发电的电量。在上个月最新出炉的五年计划包含着共产党对中国未来的规划,其中明确包含促使经济更环保发展的政策。Theres more更多内容Right after the Paris summit, however it ends, China is expected to make more promises in a new document, co-written by international experts, that presents a far-reaching programme of how China should clean up its act. It is based on models that account for both economic and political viability. On top of existing plans, such as launching a national emissions-trading scheme in 2017, the government may even outline proposals for a carbon tax, something that has eluded many prosperous countries in the West.不管过程如何,各国在巴黎峰会上通过了一份由各国专家共同撰写的文件,其中要求中国在环境问题上给出更多的承诺,同时该文件中还有一个计划长远的项目用以指导中国该如何规范其行为。该文件是基于那些给出经济可行性和政治可行性的模型。在现存计划之外,如2017年开始运行的全国碳排放交易系统,中国政府甚至开始拟定征收碳排放税,而在许多发达的西方国家,这都是一件避而不谈的事。The big question is why China is now so serious about climate change. The answer is not that Communist leaders are newly converted econuts. Rather, they want to use environmental concerns to rally domestic support for difficult reforms that would sustain growth in the coming decades. Since a global slowdown in 2008 it has become clear that to continue growing, China must move its economy away from construction and energy-intensive industry towards services. At the same time, China faces an energy crunch. For instance, in recent years China has been a net importer of coal, which generates two-thirds of Chinas electricity. It all argues for growth plans that involve less carbon.问题是中国为什么现在对气候变化如此重视?不是因为共产党领导人向环境保护论低头。相反,中国领导人希望用环境问题来召集国内持,增援改革瓶颈,维持接下来几十年的经济增长。自2008年全球经济增长放缓以来,中国领导人开始明白,要实现经济的持续增长,中国经济需要摆脱建筑业密集型和能源密集型的特点,转向务集中型经济。与此同时,中国面临能源枯竭问题。举个例子,近几年中国是煤炭净进口国,而煤炭发电量占中国总发电量的三分之二。这些都让低碳经济增长计划成为讨论热点。This is where signing international accords, such as the one hoped for in Paris, come in, for they will help the government fight entrenched interests at home. Observers see a parallel with Chinas joining the World Trade Organisation in 2001. It allowed leaders to push through internal economic reform against fierce domestic opposition. In the same way, a global climate treaty should help it take tough measures for restructuring the economy.正如巴黎气候大会所预设达成的协议一样,签署这些国际协议能够让各国政府更有利地对抗国内根深蒂固的利益集团。有分析人士认为中国2001年加入世贸组织的行为也同样有着这一目的。此举让中国领导人能够在强烈的国内反对声音中继续推动内部经济改革。同样,全球性的气候条约能够使得一些重构经济的硬措施成为可能。It will not be easy. Provincial party bosses and state-owned enterprises hate to shut factories, particularly in those parts of the country, such as Shanxi and Inner Mongolia in the north, where coal is a big employer. Cutting demand for energy is even harder. Even if the amount of electricity used by state industry falls, that used by private firms and households is bound to increase. What is more, environmental regulations and laws laid down by the centre are routinely flouted.但是这不会是件简单的事。各省级政府以及各个国企领导不希望关闭工厂,特别是像山西和内蒙古这些以煤矿业提供工作岗位的北方省份。降低能源需求就更苦难了。即使国有产业的用电量下降了,民用和私营企业的用电量一定都会上升。另外,由中央政府制定有关环境的法律法规常常遭到各地政府的无视。But cleaning up Chinas act has, for the central government, become a political necessity too. Environmental issues have been major public concerns for over a decade, says Anthony Saich of Harvard University, which has conducted polls. True, rural people fret most (and with good reason) about water pollution. But those in the cities gripe about their toxic air. Both represent a reproach to the government over its neglect of peoples lives and health.但对于中央政府来说,变更中国的行为模式也开始有了政治必要性。哈佛大学的安东尼·塞挈进行了一项投票调查,称环境问题在过去十年中变成了公众关心的一大问题。事情确实是这样的,比如农村居民最担心的是水污染问题(这个担心也是非常合理的)。但那些居住在城市的人抱怨空气中的毒害成分。这两种人都表达了对政府忽略人民生命健康的斥责。That is why national economic goals, political goals, public opinion and international pressure all point towards trying to cut emissions, pollutants included. In particular, says Zhang Zhongxiang of Tianjin University, now that dealing with climate change is a pillar of Chinas diplomacy, the government must show it can keep its promises. It has some tools at its disposal. Across the country, the environmental record of government officials has become a crucial part of their evaluation by the Communist Party; and cadres will be held accountable for their actions even after leaving their position. Several provinces have aly punished officials for environmental accidents and for not enforcing environmental laws.这也是为什么国家的经济目标、政治期望、民众意见以及国际压力都将矛头指向了减少某些污染物在内的排放量。就像天津大学的张忠祥所说的一样,现在气候变化问题成为中国外交的重点之一,政府必须要拿出遵守承诺的行动。中国有着其自身可用的方法处理环境问题。环境行政档案成为了共产党评定一个政府官员的重要依据,各级政府官员即使在离职后依然要对其在职时所作的决策负责。某些省份已经因为出现有关环境问题的事故或者没有依环境法行政等问题对一些官员进行了惩处。Fifty shades of grey五十度灰But there are obstacles to real change. The electricity grid and national power market are ill-equipped to increase renewable generation by much. Corruption in industrial procurement remains widesp, which does nothing to promote long-term efficiency or reductions in emissions. Competing incentives are also in play: earlier this year, the authorities forced a big Chinese investment company to buy back shares it had sold in old-fashioned industrial fields, for fear that it might depress share prices (which crashed anyway in a more general stockmarket meltdown). The government will not trust market mechanisms alone, says Yang Fuqiang of the Natural Resources Defense Council, an activist group.但想要真正做到改变,前面还有一些拦路虎。国家电网和国家能源市场对于新能源大量涌入没有足够的准备。行业采购中的腐败行为依然泛滥,这对于提高长期效率以及减少排放没有好处。竞争激励依然起作用:今年早些时候,一家大型中国投资公司在旧工业领域出售了许多股份,但有关部门因为担心抛售会使股份价格贬值(虽然其股价在股市暴跌情况下依然跌至低谷),于是强制要求其购回相应股份。维权团体自然资源保护委员会的杨富强称,政府不会把宝都压在市场机制上的。Nor are leaders yet pushing for change on all fronts. For instance, government efforts to cut emissions of carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide are greater than for many other greenhouse gases. Scarce and polluted water, one of Chinas most severe environmental challenges, is almost entirely beyond the scope of the current raft of reforms. And China refuses to publish its estimate of the environmental toll of economic growth.但政府也没有在每个方面都推进改革。例如政府对于减少二氧化碳和氮氧化物所采取行动明显大于其他温室气体。稀缺且日益受到污染的水资源是中国最严重的环境威胁之一,但却几乎没有没能在这一轮改革的方案之中看到相关措施。而且中国政府拒绝透露经济增长所带来的环境破坏预估值。Sceptics scoff that Chinas promises in Paris are irrelevant because emissions will probably peak regardless, long before the promised 2030. Nor has the government said how high that top might be. Yet the sceptics underestimate the importance of an international agreement for China and beyond. Like other countries, China has to date followed a pattern of “grow first, clean up later”. Yet very quickly it has recognised the dangers and drawbacks of such a policy and has been pouring money into clean energy and other innovations it hopes will provide green growth. In that, it may prove a model for other fast-developing countries. That might signal a small patch of blue sky.持怀疑态度的人嘲弄称中国在巴黎气候大会上的承诺根本毫无意义,因为远在2030年前,全球温室气体排放量不论如何都会达到最大。尽管没有政府预计过这个最大的具体数值是多少,但这些人都低估了国际协议对于现在和以后的中国的重要性。和其他国家一样,中国曾经采用“先污染后治理”的模式。但是很快中国政府就意识到了其中的危害和缺点,并投入大量资金建设清洁能源和其他有助于绿色增长模式的研发。因此,中国或许能够成为其他高速发展国家的可模仿的例子。这可能标志着天空那一抹蔚蓝色出现。 /201512/414736泉州激光脱腋毛哪家医院好泉州德化县总医院



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