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2019年01月22日 08:52:32 | 作者:飞度管家好医院 | 来源:新华社
George Osborne is travelling to Shanghai, the “epicentreof China’s summer stock market meltdown, in a show of solidarity today to declare: “Britain and China we will stick together.”英国财政大臣乔治攠斯本(George Osborne)今日将前往上海,中国夏季股灾的“震中”,意在通过此行宣告:“英国和中国——我们将紧密团结在一起。”Mr Osborne’s five-day mission to China has seen the chancellor press on with his strategy of embracing Beijing as he attempts to prove Britain is “China’s best partner in the west The chancellor insists he raised China’s human rights record in private meetings with senior government ministers in Beijing yesterday but his public utterances have been highly supportive and uncritical.奥斯本此次访华为期五天,他此行一直奉行持北京的策略,力图明英国是“中国在西方的最佳合作伙伴”。奥斯本坚称自己昨日在北京与中方部长级官员私下会谈时提到了中国人权记录,但他在公开讲话中一直对北京方面表示出高度持,不作任何批评。Mr Osborne is making his main address of the tour at the Shanghai stock exchange to say he deliberately chose “the epicentre of the volatility in financial markets this summer奥斯本将在参观上海券交易所时发表此次访华的主要讲话,表示他特意选择这个“今年夏天金融市场波动的震中位置”。“Whatever the headlines, regardless of the challenges, we should not be running away from China,he was due to say. Indeed, in Beijing he went further and said that Britain should be “running towards China他将表示:“无论新闻里怎么写,也不管面临怎样的挑战,我们不应逃离中国。”事实上,他在北京时甚至表示,英国应该“奔向中国”。Mr Osborne’s approach has been to strip out the kind of political complications that used to sour UK-China relations and still bedevil Washington’s relations with Beijing and to focus relentlessly on commercial ties.奥斯本的策略是撇开那些曾令英中关系恶化——而且现在依然困扰着中美关系——的复杂政治问题,持之以恒地将重点放在商业关系上。The chancellor insisted he was not ducking difficult subjects, however. “We do not see a choice between securing growth and investment and raising human rights issues,he said. “We do both consistently, and indeed I have done so in meetings here in China.But on issues such as meeting the Dalai Lama, the Hong Kong democracy movement, clashes with other Asian powers in the South and East China seas and cyberhacking, Britain has decided in the past three years to pull back from public confrontations.但奥斯本坚称自己没有回避难题,他说:“我们不认为争取经济增长和投资与提出人权问题之间存在二选一。我们一贯同时进行,而且实际上在中国参加会议时我也是这样做的。”但在若干问题上,如会见达赖喇嘛(Dalai Lama),香港民主运动,中国在东、南中国海与其他亚洲大国的冲突,以及网络黑客方面,过去三年英国都选择放弃公开对抗。Some of the commercial fruit of the approach was apparent yesterday as Beijing announced plans to issue short-term debt in London, the first time it has done so outside the country. Mr Osborne said the move by the People’s Bank of China was a further step towards his goal of making the City the principal offshore base for Chinese finance.奥斯本的策略在昨天结出了一些商业果实,北京方面宣布计划在伦敦发行短期债务,这是中国首次在海外发行短期债务。奥斯本表示,中国人民银PBoC)此举让他的目标——让伦敦金融城成为中国主要离岸金融基地——又近了一步。Separately, Mr Osborne and his Chinese counterpart, Ma Kai, announced a feasibility study into linking the stock markets of London and Shanghai to provide deeper liquidity for the Chinese market. Further evidence of the closer links will come today when the London Stock Exchange announces that China Construction Bank’s London branch is to become a member firm the bourse’s ninth Chinese member.此外,奥斯本还与中国副总理马凯宣布将就上海和伦敦股市连通开展可行性研究,为中国市场提供更有深度的流动性。伦敦交所(London Stock Exchange)今日将宣布中国建设银CCB)伦敦分行成为其会员,这是该交易所的第九个中国成员,此举将进一步明英中两国的密切联系。来 /201509/400240This past month may be remembered as the moment the ed States lost its role as the underwriter of the global economic system. True, there have been any number of periods of frustration for the US before, and times when American behaviour was hardly multilateralist, such as the 1971 Nixon shock, ending the convertibility of the dollar into gold. But I can think of no event since Bretton Woods comparable to the combination of China’s effort to establish a major new institution and the failure of the US to persuade dozens of its traditional allies, starting with Britain, to stay out of it.刚刚过去的这个月可能会作为一个历史性时刻载入史册,它标志着美国失去了全球经济体系担保人的角色。诚然,美国以前经历过数段挫折期,很多时候它的行为也算不上多边主义,比如1971年结束了美元兑换黄金的尼克松冲击(Nixon shock)。但除布雷顿森林体系(Bretton Woods)以外,我想不到有任何事件可与以下两件事的结合相提并论:中国力求建立一个重要的新机构;而从英国开始,美国未能说几十个传统盟友不要参与该机构。This failure of strategy and tactics was a long time coming, and it should lead to a comprehensive review of the US approach to global economics. With China’s economic size rivalling America’s and emerging markets accounting for at least half of world output, the global economic architecture needs substantial adjustment. Political pressures from all sides in the US have rendered it increasingly dysfunctional.这是一场早有预兆的战略和战术上的失败,它应该引来一场有关美国对全球经济采取什么姿态的全面检讨。随着中国的经济规模赶上美国,以及新兴市场在全球产出总量中至少占一半份额,全球经济架构需作出大幅调整。而国内各方的政治压力使美国的行为变得越来越不正常。Largely because of resistance from the right, the US stands alone in the world in failing to approve the International Monetary Fund governance reforms that Washington itself pushed for in . By supplementing IMF resources, this change would have bolstered confidence in the global economy. More important, it would come closer to giving countries such as China and India a share of IMF votes commensurate with their new economic heft.美国政府009年推动国际货币基金组IMF)进行治理改革,但主要由于右翼的阻挠,美国未能批准改革方案,令其在国际社会陷入孤立。该改革方案本可以通过补充IMF的资源,提振全球经济信心。更重要的是,它可以赋予中国和印度等国与其新的经济份量更加相称的投票权份额。Meanwhile, pressures from the left have led to pervasive restrictions on infrastructure projects financed through existing development banks, which consequently have receded as funders, even as many developing countries now see infrastructure finance as their principal external funding need.与此同时,美国国内左翼的压力导致基础设施项目在通过现有开发融资时处处受限,这些开发作为出资者已逐渐退缩,尽管许多发展中国家现在将基础设施融资视为它们主要的外部融资需求。With US commitments unhonoured and US-backed policies blocking the kinds of finance other countries want to provide or receive through the existing institutions, the way was clear for China to establish the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. There is room for argument about the tactical approach that should have been taken once the initiative was put forward. But the larger question now is one of strategy. Here are three precepts that US leaders should keep in mind.鉴于美国不能兑现承诺,而且美国持的政策阻止其他国家通过现有机构提供或接受资助,中国建立亚洲基础设施投资(Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank,简称亚投行)的道路是畅通的。在这个倡议提出后,对于在战术上应该采取什么样的姿态是存在争论空间的。但现在更大的问题是战略问题。美国领导人应牢记以下三条准则。First, American leadership must have a bipartisan foundation at home, be free from gross hypocrisy and be restrained in the pursuit of self-interest. As long as one of our major parties is opposed to essentially all trade agreements, and the other is resistant to funding international organisations, the US will not be in a position to shape the global economic system.首先,美国的领导力必须在国内有两党的基础,摒弃严重虚伪,并收敛对自身利益的追求。只要我们的两个主要政党仍然一个基本上反对所有贸易协定,另一个不愿资助国际组织,美国就无法影响全球经济体系的格局。Other countries are legitimately frustrated when US officials ask them to adjust their policies then insist that American state regulators, independent agencies and far-reaching judicial actions are beyond their control. This is especially true when many foreign businesses assert that US actions raise real rule of law problems.每当美国官员要求其他国家调整政策,然后坚称自己无法控制美国各州监管机构、独立机构以及影响深远的司法行动时,其他国家有充分理由感到郁闷,尤其是在许多外国企业宣称美国的举动引发实质性法治问题的情况下。The legitimacy of US leadership depends on our resisting the temptation to abuse it in pursuit of parochial interest, even when that interest appears compelling. We cannot expect to maintain the dollar’s primary role in the international system if we are too aggressive about limiting its use in pursuit of particular security objectives.美国领导力的合法性取决于我们能否抵挡住诱惑,不利用它追求美国一国之利,即便这种利益看上去非常具有吸引力。如果我们将美元的使用局限于追求某些特定的安全目标,在这方面过于咄咄逼人,我们就不能指望能维持美元在国际体系中至高无上的地位。Second, in global as well as domestic politics, the middle class counts the most. It sometimes seems that the prevailing global agenda combines elite concerns about matters such as intellectual property, investment protection and regulatory harmonisation with moral concerns about global poverty and posterity, while offering little to those in the middle. Approaches that do not serve the working class in industrial countries (and rising urban populations in developing ones) are unlikely to work out well in the long run.其次,在国际以及国内政治中,中产阶级都应该是摆在第一位的。有时候,主流国际议程一方面是精英们关心的问题,如知识产权、投资保护和监管协调,另一方面是有关全球贫困和子孙后代的道德担忧,但很少关心中产阶级。不为工业化国家里的劳动者阶级(以及发展中国家不断壮大的城市人口)谋福利的政策,从长远来看不太可能成功。Third, we may be headed into a world where capital is abundant and deflationary pressures are substantial. Demand could be in short supply for some time. In no big industrialised country do markets expect real interest rates to be much above zero in 2020 or inflation targets to be achieved. In the future, the priority must be promoting investment, not imposing austerity. The present system places the onus of adjustment on “borrowingcountries. The world now requires a symmetric system, with pressure also placed on “surpluscountries.第三,我们的世界或许在朝这样的方向前进:资本充足,通缩压力巨大。需求不足的问题可能会持续一段时间。在所有大型工业化国家,市场都不指020年的实际利率会比零高出太多,也不指望通胀目标能够实现。未来的重心必须是促进投资,而非实施紧缩政策。现行体制将调整的责任放在了“借款”国身上。如今世界需要一种对称的体制,让“盈余”国也承担起责任。These precepts are just a beginning, and many questions remain. There are questions about global public goods, about acting with the speed and clarity that the current era requires, about co-operation between governmental and non-governmental actors, and much more. What is crucial is that the events of the past month will be seen by future historians not as the end of an era, but as a salutary wake up call.上述原则只是个开始,还存在许多问题。有全球公共品问题,有在采取行动时拿出当今时代所要求的速度和清晰度的问题,有政府和非政府行为主体之间合作的问题,等等。重要的是,过去一个月的事件将被未来的史学家视为一记及时的警钟,而非一个时代终结的标志。The writer is Charles W Eliot university professor at Harvard and a former US Treasury secretary注:本文作者是美国哈佛大学(Harvard)查尔#8226;W#8226;艾略特校级教Charles W. Eliot University Professor),曾担任美国财政部长。来 /201504/368849For a while four years in fact it looked as though Hillary Clinton had put the past behind her. As America’s top diplomat, she enjoyed by far the highest ratings of any US figure. Her popularity abroad was matched by appreciation at home for the grace with which she buried the hatchet with Barack Obama. Americans most admire politicians who seem to be above politics. Mrs Clinton had a taste of that. Then she quit as secretary of state (to prepare for her second White House bid). She has been losing altitude ever since. The worry among Democrats is her woes are only a foretaste of what is to come. They are probably right.在一段时期里(实际上年),希拉里#8226;克林Hillary Clinton)似乎抛掉了历史包袱。作为美国的最高外交官,她在美国政要中享有遥遥领先的最高人气。与她在海外的受欢迎程度相媲美的是,她与巴拉#8226;奥巴Barack Obama)捐弃前嫌所展现的风度让她在国内备受赞赏。美国人最敬佩那些似乎超越政治的政治人物。希拉里曾经接近那种境界。接着她辞去国务卿一职(为再度问鼎白宫做准备)。自那以来她一直在失去高度。民主党人担心,她的困境只是未来的一种预兆。他们的看法很可能是对的。Like almost every Clinton “scandal there is less than meets the eye to revelations that Mrs Clinton used a private account for her official emails. The discovery that she routed her government correspondence through a “homebrewserver is the kind of exposé that sends Washington into a tailspin but barely registers beyond. From the Whitewater investigations during Bill Clinton’s presidency in the 1990s to the ructions over the 2012 Benghazi murders of four US diplomats, the smoking gun is always just beyond reach. Failure to find one is why Whitewater prosecutors were sidetracked into Mr Clinton’s dalliance with Monica Lewinsky. It is also the path by which the Benghazi probes stumbled on Mrs Clinton’s home server.有人爆出,希拉里曾利用个人账户收发官方电邮。与几乎所有与克林顿夫妇相关的“丑闻”一样,这些爆料不像看上去那么复杂。据悉,她通过设在家中的务器收发政府邮件,这种爆料在华盛顿引发轩然,但除此之外没什么人关心。从比尔#8226;克林Bill Clinton)上世0年代担任总统期间的白水事Whitewater)调查,到围绕2012年班加西美国领事馆遇袭案(导名美国外交官遇难)的争议,人们总是无法找到确凿的据明克林顿夫妇有过错。正因如此,白水事件的检方将矛头转向克林顿与莫尼#8226;莱温斯基(Monica Lewinsky)的绯闻。同样,班加西案的调查偶然发现了希拉里安在家中的务器。With the Clintons there is always some cover-up waiting to be unearthed. Nearly a quarter of a century of probes from Little Rock to Washington have failed to bring them down. Yet there is also more to “homebrewthan meets the eye. Mrs Clinton was technically within the law in using a private account. It is possible her home server was more secure than the State Department’s porous system. None of this really matters. To Mrs Clinton’s enemies, the fact that a trove of private emails exist is invitation to conspiracy. It is also an example of how she plays by different rules. Even President Obama uses official email. Mrs Clinton’s pursuers are unlikely to give up until every one of her emails has been subpoenaed.在克林顿夫妇身上,总有一些被掩盖的事情等着被揭露。近25年的调查(从阿肯色州的小石城到华盛顿)都没能打倒他们。但此次“电邮门”事件要比看上去复杂。从技术上说,希拉里使用个人账户是合法的。她设在家中的务器可能比美国国务院漏洞百出的系统更安全。这些其实都不重要。对于希拉里的敌人而言,大量私人电邮的存在本身就意味着可能有什么阴谋。这也是她不按常理出牌的一个例子。就连奥巴马总统也使用官方电邮。在希拉里的全部电邮都被传唤之前,追击她的人是不太可能放弃的。“Homebrewhighlights three big problems facing Mrs Clinton. First, the Democratic party is suffering from Clinton fatigue. Given the lack of exciting alternatives, Democrats have little choice but to stick with her through hell or high water. Some of them would take that literally. The contrast with the Republican field, which is aly crowded with names, is stark. Now would be a good moment for an unknown talent from Illinois with a Muslim middle name to take Democrats by storm. But that is unlikely to happen twice. Even among Mrs Clinton’s most loyal backers, the mood is one of grim determination. They are steeling for trial by ordeal not a coronation.“电邮门”事件突显出希拉里面临的三大问题。首先,民主党正经历“克林顿”审美疲劳。由于缺乏其他令人振奋的候选人,该党别无选择,只能在任何情况下力挺希拉里。其中一些人真的会竭尽全力。与“人才济济”的共和党相比,这一点相当明显。现在应该有一个来自伊利诺伊州、有一个穆斯林中间名、不知名的人物登场,让民主党振作起来。但这不太可能发现两次。甚至在希拉里最忠实的持者中,也洋溢着一种坚韧决心的情绪。他们正下决心忍受痛苦的煎熬,而非加冕礼。Second, Mrs Clinton is running against herself, which is the worst of both worlds. The Clintons are at their best with their backs to the wall. Mr Clinton’s finest campaign moment came after he was written off in 1991 only to resurge as the “comeback kidin the New Hampshire primary. Mrs Clinton’s most electrifying phase was in 2008 after she had been upended by Mr Obama and was fighting for her pride. She won state after state, though it was aly too late. This time, Mrs Clinton faces no plausible rival. Once again she is the “inevitable nominee with the inflated expectations that brings. If she fails to win each primary convincingly, the sharks will be quick to smell blood.第二,希拉里正在同自己竞选,这种状况是最糟糕的。克林顿夫妇往往在背水一战时进入最佳状态。克林顿最棒的竞选时刻莫过于1991年他被人放弃希望,却又在新罕布什尔州的初选中卷土重来。希拉里最令人振奋的阶段是008年被奥巴马夺走风头之后,继续为自己的尊严而战。她赢得了一个又一个州,尽管已经太迟。这一次,希拉里不再面对任何可信的对手。她再次成为“不可避免的被提名人”,伴随着与之俱来的过高期望。如果她不能令人信地拿下每一场初选,鲨鱼很快就会闻到血腥。Third, Mrs Clinton’s distrust of the media is self-fulfilling. She has genuine reasons for concern. As First Lady, she was the target of more scurrilous journalism than any figure in recent memory. Madcap books were written about how the Clintons assassinated their enemies and looted public funds. But there was also plenty of legitimate critical journalism. After a while, Mrs Clinton did not seem to know the difference. She shrouded her healthcare reform effort in secrecy, then saw the product picked apart by supposed allies. The wrong lesson was drawn. Mrs Clinton withdrew even further into her circle of trust. Sticking with inveterate loyalists undid her campaign in 2008. It could do so again. To win, she must engage people openly, including the media.第三,希拉里对媒体的不信任正在自我应验。她有真诚的理由对媒体感到担忧。作为第一夫人,她受到的舆论诽谤比我们近期记忆中的任何人物都要多。一些荒唐的书描写了克林顿夫妇如何暗杀他们的敌人并侵吞公款。但也存在很多正当的批评报道。过了一段时间后,希拉里似乎搞不清它们之间的差别。她把自己的医疗改革努力搞得神神秘秘,结果却看到自己的心血被所谓的盟友说得一文不值。但希拉里吸取了错误的教训。她进一步退缩回自己信任的小圈子。重用坚定持者毁掉了希拉008年的竞选。这种情况可能会再次出现。要获得胜利,她必须公开地与社会各界打交道,包括媒体。There are signs that Mrs Clinton has corrected some of her bad habits. Picking John Podesta to chair her campaign, as she is expected to do, would be a good step. As Mr Obama’s second-term adviser, Mr Podesta helped to reboot a White House that was also damaged by overreliance on insiders. He did much the same for Mr Clinton after he was impeached over the Lewinsky scandal. He will have to dig deep for Mrs Clinton. The New York Times revelation that foreign governments, from Azerbaijan to Qatar, gave money to her husband’s Clinton Foundation while she was secretary of state is unlikely to go away. The “homebrewscandal has given it stronger legs. Ill-wishers will be scouring Mrs Clinton’s emails for evidence有迹象显示,希拉里已改正了自己的某些坏习惯。选择约翰#8226;波德斯塔(John Podesta)来主持她的竞选(人们期望她会这么做)将是很好的一步。作为奥巴马第二任期的顾问,波德斯塔帮助重启了因过度信赖内部人士而受损的白宫。他也这样帮助过克林顿,那是在后者因莱温斯基丑闻遭到弹劾之后。他将不得不为希拉里绞尽脑汁。据《纽约时报New York Times)披露,希拉里担任国务卿期间,从阿塞拜疆到卡塔尔的外国政府曾向她丈夫的克林顿基金会(Clinton Foundation)捐款。这件事不太可能平息。“电邮门”丑闻助长了它的发酵。幸灾乐祸的人将在希拉里的邮件里搜寻据,明她知晓这些捐款。关于她促成了这些捐款的任何线索都可能是致命的。she was aware of such donations. Any hint that she facilitated them could be fatal.We are still weeks from Mrs Clinton’s official campaign launch possibly months. Yet it is aly encountering heavy turbulence. Democrats have little choice but to climb aboard. They should fasten their seatbelts and put on the headphones. The next 18 months are going to be noisy.距离希拉里正式启动竞选还有几周——也可能是几个月。但此次竞选已经遭遇了强气流。民主党人别无选择,只能爬上船。他们应该系好安全带、戴上耳机。未8个月将充满争吵。来 /201503/363485

Assistant attorney-general John Carlin remembers when FBI cyber intelligence specialists sat in a locked room at the US attorney’s office in Washington, cut off from criminal prosecutors in the same building. Now those walls have broken down as law enforcement officials rethink how they work with intelligence to fight the mounting risk from cyber attacks that threaten national security.The shift helps explain why authorities named North Korea as the culprit behind the Sony Pictures cyber attack less than a month after the Hollywood studio was hacked. The approach also represents a more aggressive strategy of naming and shaming cyber attackers.“The world is watching so you need to send a message to regimes about what they can expect our response to be so you’re not operating in a cost-free environment where you think it will never be attributed to you,said Mr Carlin, head of the national security division in the Department of Justice. “We’re not afraid to say it and after we say it, there will be a proportionate response.”Previously, national security cyber cases were seen as an issue for the intelligence community. The strategy meant those incidents were usually kept quiet and, with no prosecutors involved, bringing charges was not an option.The siloed structure went against the trend for more information sharing between agencies after 2001’s September 11 US terrorist attacks.“When it came to cyber, we didn’t think we were applying some of the lessons we’d learned in combating the terrorism threat,Mr Carlin said. “If you don’t have prosecutors looking at it, you don’t know whether that’s a tool in the toolbox.”The approach changed in 2012, when the DoJ’s national security division created the national security cyber specialist network. It meant retraining prosecutors in the division, and in US attorney offices to ensure each had at least one prosecutor focused on national security cyber threats.At the same time, the FBI allowed agents to share intelligence with these prosecutors, who also began working with the FBI’s national cyber investigative joint task force made up of the Central Intelligence Agency, the National Security Agency, the Defence Intelligence Agency and others.For the FBI, that meant taking classified information from the NSA, CIA and other agencies and translating that into evidence that could be declassified, which could be used in a criminal prosecution or cited to name a culprit, like in the Sony case. “Simply collecting ‘intelmay not be in the national interest when it comes to cyber attacks that threaten the national interest,said John Riggi, the FBI’s cyber division section chief. “We learnt post 9/11 that taking highly classified intelligence and turning it into evidence that can be used is a highly successful way to disrupt our adversaries.”The first public sign that the new approach was working came in the 2014 indictment of five Chinese soldiers accused of cyber hacking and economic espionage against US Steel, Westinghouse Electric and others. It was the first time state actors had been charged in that type of cyber case.FBI agents, the US attorney’s office in Pittsburgh, the NSD and others worked on the case in a way that it could be brought to a criminal court.“There was scepticism in some corners as to whether we’d be able to bring a case,Mr Carlin said. “It was important to show that yes, it can be done.”But the doubts have not disappeared. In the Sony case, sceptics were quick to say the evidence of IP addresses linked to North Korea could have been faked, for example.But translating intelligence into evidence helped authorities put the pieces together to name North Korea and issue new sanctions against the country and some of its officials. Bringing criminal charges could still be an option.The DoJ and the FBI have stepped up their efforts to encourage companies to come forward. Many are still reluctant to report breaches because they distrust agencies. “It makes it very challenging,Mr Riggi said. “Cyber is like no other threat we face and we can’t do our job without private sector help.”美国助理总检察官约翰#8226;卡林(John Carlin)还记得以前,美国联邦调查局(FBI)的网络情报专家坐在他在华盛顿的办公室中一间上锁的房间里,把同一栋大楼里的刑事检察官隔绝在外。现在,随着执法人员重新思考如何运用情报,以对抗威胁国家安全的网络攻击带来的越来越大的风险,隔绝情报人员和检察官的高墙轰然倒塌。这种转变有助于解释为何好莱坞制片公司索尼影Sony Pictures)遭受黑客攻击还不到一月,美国当局就指出朝鲜是这次网络攻击的幕后黑手。这种策略也表明美国当局对网络攻击者采用了更强硬的策略——直接点名曝光使其蒙羞。“世界都在看,因此你需要向其他政权发出信息,告诉他们我们会有什么反应,让他们明白:这不是一个做事没有代价的环境,别以为永远追查不到你头上,”现任美国司法部(Department of Justice)国家安全司主管的卡林说,“我们不怕说出来,而且说了以后,对方就会采取相应的反应。”以前,涉及国家安全的网络案件被视为情报人员要解决的问题。这种策略意味着当局对这些案件往往秘而不宣,没有检察官参与其中,因此根本不可能提起诉讼。这种封闭的机制有悖001/11恐怖袭击之后加强各机构间信息分享的趋势。“对于网络案件,我们认为我们以前没有把对抗恐怖主义威胁时吸取的一些经验运用到其中,”卡林说,“如果没有检察官参与查,你就不知道这个方法可不可用。012年这种策略发生了改变,美国司法部国家安全司创建了国家安全网络专家网,对该司和各个检察官办公室里的检察官重新培训,确保每个办公室都至少有一名检察官重点关注国家安全网络威胁。与此同时,FBI批准探员与这些检察官分享情报,这些检察官也开始与FBI国家网络调查联合特别工作组合作,小组成员来自美国中央情报局(CIA)、美国国家安全局(NSA)和美国国防情报局(Defence Intelligence Agency)。对FBI而言,这意味着将NSA、CIA和其他一些政府部门的机密信息转化成能够解密的据,以用于刑事诉讼,或者就像索尼影视的事件中那样,引为据点出肇事者的身份。“对于危及国家利益的网络攻击,仅仅收集‘情报’或许并不符合国家利益,”FBI网络部的科长约翰#8226;里吉(John Riggi)说,/11以后,我们意识到,将高度机密的情报转化成能够利用的据,是打垮我们的敌人的绝佳办法。”这种新策略首次公开亮相是在2014年,美国当局起诉5名中国军人,指控其对美国钢铁公司(US Steel)、西屋电Westinghouse Electric)等公司发起网络黑客活动和经济间谍活动。这类网络案件中,这是国家人员首次成为被控告的对象。FBI探员、匹兹堡检察官办公室、美国司法部国家安全司和其他参与方共同合作,使案件可以进入刑事诉讼程序。“有些人怀疑我们是否能够提起诉讼,”卡林说,“向世人展示我们能做到,这很重要。”但人们的怀疑并未消散。比如,在索尼影视的事件中,怀疑论者很快就表示,与朝鲜相关的IP地址据很可能是捏造的。然而,将情报化为据帮助当局将碎片拼凑在一起,指朝鲜为罪魁祸首,对朝鲜和一些朝鲜官员采取了新的制裁措施。提起刑事诉讼是可能做到的事情。司法部和FBI已加大努力鼓励企业挺身而出。许多企业在上报违法情况时依然态度勉强,因为它们不信任政府部门。“这让事情极具挑战性,”里吉说,“网络不像我们面临的任何其他威胁,如果没有私人部门的帮助,我们就无法开展工作。

There were troubling portents in the way Democrats humbled President Barack Obama last Friday. It is not only that he made a rare visit to Capitol Hill to appeal for Democratic support on his global trade agen#173;da. Nor that he warned them that a vote against it would be the same as one against him. These were bad enough. Worse is that it was Nancy Pelosi the Democratic leader, and linchpin of every legislative victory since Mr Obama took office, including healthcare who put the knife in his back. When your closest ally betrays you, it is time to reach for your Shakespeare.上周五,民主党羞辱巴拉克#8226;奥巴Barack Obama)总统的方式有一些令人不安的征兆。不只是他罕有地造访国会山,希望赢得民主党对其全球贸易议程的持。也不是他警告称,反对该议程就是反对他。这些已经足够糟糕了。更糟糕的是,民主党领导人南#8226;佩洛Nancy Pelosi)在奥巴马背后捅了一刀。自奥巴马上任以来,佩洛西是奥巴马所有立法胜利(包括医疗改革)的关键人物。当你最亲密的盟友背叛你时,你就该求助莎士比Shakespeare)了。Mr Obama may have to beg, flatter and cajole his way out of this one. The only way to retrieve his trade agenda let alone his credibility will be to reverse last week’s defeat. It has been done before. The best example is Congress’s rejection of the 0bn Wall Street bailout package (the troubled asset relief programme, Tarp) in September 2008. It was reversed 72 hours later. But George W Bush, the then president, could point to a stock market in free fall. The Dow fell almost 1,000 points after the first vote, enough to terrify lawmakers into the Yes camp on the second. Mr Obama has no such prompts. The Dow Jones index dropped 140 points last Friday, which was no more than an average bad day.要杀出困境,奥巴马或许不得不设法乞求、奉承和哄骗。挽回其贸易议程(更别提他的信誉了)的唯一途径是逆转上周的败绩。以前出现过这种事情。最好的例子是,2008月美国国会否决了7000亿美元的华尔街纾困方案——问题资产救助计Tarp)2小时后该决定被逆转。但时任总统乔治·W·布什(George W Bush)可以指向一落千丈的美国股市。在首次投票后,道琼斯指Dow)下挫000点,吓得立法者在第二轮投票时加入持阵营。奥巴马没有得到这种辅助。上周五,道琼斯指数下跌140点,只是一个普通的糟糕交易日。Mr Obama badly needs to come up with something in the next few days. The price of failure for him and the US is too high. The costs would be threefold. First, rejection of the trade promotion authority (TPA), or fast-track negotiating powers, would leave the US without a global economic strategy in a rapidly changing world. It would kill prospects of wrapping up the Pacific trade deal on which Mr Obama has been working for three years. The 12-member group covers almost 40 per cent of the world economy. It would also halt progress in the parallel transatlantic talks, which cover close to half the global economy.奥巴马迫切需要在未来几天拿出一些应对方案。对于他(以及美国)而言,失败的代价太高。这表现在三方面。首先,否决“贸易促进权”法案(TPA,又称快速道(fast-track)谈判授权)将令美国在这个快速变化的世界丧失一项全球经济战略。这将断送缔结奥巴马已努年的太平洋贸易协定的可能性。《跨太平洋伙伴关系》(Trans-Pacific Partnership,简称TPP2个成员国占全球经济的0%。这也将让平行的跨大西洋谈判进展受阻,这些成员国占全球经济近一半。Next, it would rob the US “pivot to Asiaof its most important element. Mr Obama’s biggest argument for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is that it would force China to abide by global rules on trade and investment. China is not included in the group. Perhaps un#173;wisely, Mr Obama has played that China card explicitly and repeatedly. A collapse in the TPP talks would breathe life into China’s rival initiative, to which the US does not belong. Any scepticism that others would take the China-led trade talks seriously was laid to rest last month when America’s regional allies, including Australia and South Korea, spurned the US boycott of the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. There is no reason to suppose it would turn out any different on trade. Most countries would far prefer US leadership to China’s. But in America’s ab#173;sence, there is only one alternative.其次,这将剥夺美国“重心转向亚洲”战略中的最重要元素。奥巴马持TPP的最有力理由是,该协定将迫使中国遵守全球贸易与投资规则。中国没有被纳入该协定。或许不明智的是,奥巴马明确、多次地打出这张“中国牌”。TPP谈判的破裂将为中国与之竞争的倡议(美国不在其中)注入生机。对于其他国家将严肃对待由中国主导的贸易谈判的怀疑,已在上月消除,美国在亚洲的盟友(包括澳大利亚和韩国)没有理睬美国对中国主导的亚洲基础设施投资(AIIB)的抵制。没有理由设想在贸易问题上会出现不同的结果。多数国家将更青睐美国的领头,而非中国。但在没有美国的情况下,只有一种选择。Last, the death of TPA at Democratic hands would deprive Mr Obama of credibility on the world stage. His trade team, led by the very able Michael Froman, has assured the US’s Pacific partners that TPA’s enactment was a foregone conclusion. Since Mr Obama al#173;y had the bulk of Republicans on his side, it was only a matter of persuading a sliver of Democrats to back him. The fallout would go far beyond trade. Mr Obama faces a deadline to conclude US-led talks with Iran. This year and over Mr Obama’s protestations the US Senate took the unusual step of passing a bill that would give it 60 days to review the contents of any Iran nuclear deal. There is a clear parallel to fast track. Mr Obama had insisted an Iran deal would not qualify as a treaty and would therefore not require Senate approval. Iran is less likely to risk the necessary concessions if it thinks Congress will torpedo the deal. On what grounds would Iran trust Mr Obama’s assurances?最后,若TPA葬送在民主党手里,奥巴马将丧失其在世界舞台上的信誉。由非常能干的迈克尔#8226;弗罗Michael Froman)领导的奥巴马的贸易团队,已让美国在太平洋地区的合作伙伴相信,TPA仪案的通过是一个免不了的结果。奥巴马已经有大多数共和党人站在他这一边,他本来只要说一小部分民主党人持他就行了。失败的冲击波将远远超越贸易领域。奥巴马面临着与伊朗完成由美国主导的核谈判的最后期限。今年,美国参议院不顾奥巴马的抗议,不寻常地通过了一项法案,使自己获0天时间审议伊朗核协议的内容。这与“快车道”有清晰的类似之处。奥巴马此前坚称,与伊朗达成的协议算不上条约,因此不需要参议院批准。如果伊朗认为美国国会将否决协议,它就不太可能冒险作出必要的让步。有什么理由让伊朗相信奥巴马的保?In an ideal democracy, any of these points ought to be a clincher. But in the real world politicians look to their own survival before thinking of the bigger picture. Mr Obama must thus come up with something more persuasive. One hope is that Republicans will save the day without Mr Obama having to do anything. After all, Republicans believe in free trade and fast-track powers would be inherited by Mr Obama’s successor, who might well be a Republican. Last week’s defeat was an “only on Capitol Hillmoment, in which TPA was passed (by a majority of eight) only to be sunk by defeat of another part of the package. Enactment of that part, which subsidises retraining workers who lose their jobs to trade, was required for the whole bill to pass. Both parties voted heavily against.在理想的民主政体中,上述任何理由都应该是起决定性作用的论据。但在现实世界中,政客们把自己的生存置于全局考虑之前。因此,奥巴马必须拿出更有说力的理由。一个希望是,不需奥巴马采取任何动作,共和党人就将扭转局面。毕竟,共和党人信仰自由贸易,而且快车道权力将被奥巴马的继任者继承,而后者很可能是共和党人。上周的挫败是典型的“国会山式”荒唐剧,TPA部分被通过了(赞成方获得了8票的优势),却因法案的另一部分遭否决而受挫。只有那一部分(补贴对因贸易而失业的工人的再培训)也获得法律效力,整个法案才能通过。两党都有很多议员投票反对这部分。If it squeaks through on the second try, Mr Obama would be saved. But it would require Republicans to hold their noses and vote for something they mistrust (subsidies) to save someone they abhor (Mr Obama). The other hope is that Ms Pelosi and colleagues change their mind on the merits of trade deals. But that seems improbable. So Republicans are left with a dilemma: should they defeat Mr Obama and hobble the US? Or give Mr Obama a victory that would also save America’s credibility? The coming days will be very revealing.如果法案在第二次尝试时勉强通过,奥巴马将会得救。但这需要共和党人捏住鼻子,投票持他们不信任的事情(补贴)以拯救他们讨厌的人(奥巴马)。另一个希望是,佩洛西及其同事从贸易协定的好处着想,改变想法。但那似乎不太可胀?所以,共和党人面临一个两难困境:到底是应该击败奥巴马,让美国受到重创?还是应该让奥巴马获胜,同时也挽救美国的信誉?未来几天将让我们大开眼界。来 /201506/381118

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