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2019年08月23日 09:08:00来源:飞排名养生咨询

The most interesting message in this year’s World Energy Outlook from the International Energy Agency is also its most disturbing.在国际能源署(IEA)今年发布的《世界能源展望》(World Energy Outlook)中,最令人瞩目的信息也最令人不安。Over the past decade, the oil and gas industry’s upstream investments have registered an astronomical increase, but these ever higher levels of capital expenditure have yielded ever smaller increases in the global oil supply. Even these have only been made possible by record high oil prices. This should be a reality check for those now hyping a new age of global oil abundance.过去10年里,油气行业上游业务投资暴增,但新增资本出带来的新增全球石油供应量不断缩小。尽管情况不尽如人意,这还是靠创纪录的高油价撑才得以实现的。对于眼下那些鼓吹全球石油充足新时代已经到来的人而言,这应是当头一棒。According to the 2013 WEO, the total world oil supply in 2012 was 87.1m barrels a day, an increase of 11.9m b/d over the 75.2m b/d produced in 2000.根据2013年《世界能源展望》,2012年,全球石油总供应量为每日8710万桶,这个数字较2000年的7520万桶增加了1190万桶。However, less than one-third of this increase was in the form of conventional crude oil, and more than two-thirds was therefore either what the IEA calls unconventional crude (light-tight oil, oil sands, and deep/ultra-deepwater oil) or natural-gas liquids (NGLs).然而,在新增部分中,常规原油只占不到三分之一,另外逾三分之二要么是IEA所说的非常规原油(轻致密油(light-tight oil)、油砂和深水及超深水石油(deep/ultra-deepwater oil)),要么是天然气凝析液(NGL)。This distinction matters because unconventional crude has a higher cost than conventional crude, while NGLs have a lower energy density.区分新增部分的不同来源很重要,因为非常规原油的成本高于常规原油,而天然气凝析液的能量密度低于常规原油。The IEA’s long-run cost curve has conventional crude in a range of - a barrel, whereas for unconventional crude the ranges are higher: - a barrel for oil sands, -0 for light-tight oil, and - for ultra-deep water. Meanwhile, in terms of energy content, a barrel of crude oil is worth 1.4 barrels of NGLs.根据IEA的长期成本曲线,常规原油的成本区间为每桶10美元至70美元,而非常规原油的成本区间位于较高水平:油砂的每桶成本为50美元至90美元,轻致密油为50美元至100美元,超深水石油为70美元至90美元。与此同时,1桶原油所含能量相当于1.4桶天然气凝析液。Threefold rise资本出12年扩大逾两倍The much higher cost of developing unconventional crude resources and the lower energy density of NGLs explain why, as these sources have increased their share of supply, the industry’s upstream capex has grown. But the sheer scale of the increase is staggering: upstream outlays have risen more than threefold in real terms over the past 12 years, reaching nearly 0bn in 2012 compared with only 0bn in 2000 (both figures in constant 2012 dollars).由于开发非传统原油资源的成本比传统原油高得多,而天然气凝析液能量密度比传统原油低,因此随着这些来源在原油供应中比例上升,该行业的上游资本出一直在增加,并且增幅相当惊人:过去12年,上游业务实际资本出扩大逾两倍,2012年达到近7000亿美元,而2000年这个数字仅为2500亿美元(这些数据均以2012年定值美元计算)。Coinciding with the rise in US tight-oil production, most of this increase in upstream capex has occurred since 2005, as investments have effectively doubled from 0bn in that year to nearly 0bn in 2012 (again in 2012 dollars).与美国致密油产量增加的时间相吻合,新增上游业务资本出大部分发生在2005年以后,实际上,投资从2005年到2012年翻了一番,从3500亿美元增至近7000亿美元(同样以2012年定值美元计算)。All of which means the 2013 WEO has the oil industry’s upstream capex rising by nearly 180 per cent since 2000, but the global oil supply (adjusted for energy content) by only 14 per cent. The most straightforward interpretation of this data is that the economics of oil have become completely dislocated from historic norms since 2000 (and especially since 2005), with the industry investing at exponentially higher rates for increasingly small incremental yields of energy.所有这些都意味着,如2013年《世界能源展望》所示,自2000年以来,石油行业上游业务的资本出扩大了近180%,但全球石油供应(按能源含量调整后)仅增加了14%。对这一数据的最直接解读是,自2000年(特别是自2005年)以来,石油的经济性已完全偏离历史正常水平,行业投资呈指数增长,而创造的能源产出增量却越来越少。The industry has been able and willing to finance such a dramatic increase in its capital investment since 2000 owing to the similarly dramatic increase in prices. BP data show that the average price of Brent crude in real terms increased from a barrel in 2000 to 2 in 2012 (in constant 2011 dollars), which represents a 195 per cent increase, slightly greater in fact than the increase in industry capex over the same period.自2000年以来,石油行业之所以一直能够而且愿意为资本出的飙升买单,是因为油价同样出现飙升。英国石油(BP)数据显示,布伦特(Brent)原油的每桶实际均价已从2000年的38美元升至2012年的112美元(以2011年定值美元计算),涨幅高达195%,实际上略高于同期石油行业资本出的增速。However, looking only at the period since 2005, capital outlays have risen faster than prices (90 per cent and 75 per cent respectively), while in the past two years capex has risen by a further 20 per cent (the IEA estimates 2013 upstream capex at 0bn versus 0bn in 2011), while Brent prices have actually averaged about a barrel less this year than in 2011.然而,如果只考察2005年至2012年这段时期,资本出增速是高于油价涨幅的(分别为90%和75%)。此外,在过去两年里,资本出进一步扩大20%(IEA估计,2013年上游业务资本出为7100亿美元,而2011年这一数字为5900亿美元),而布伦特原油今年的每桶均价实际上比2011年还要低5美元左右。Iran not a game changer伊朗不会扭转乾坤Moreover, this vast increase in capex has occurred during a prolonged period of record-low interest rates. Once interest rates start rising again, this will put further pressure on the industry’s ability to make the massive capital outlays required to keep supply growing.另外,资本出的大幅增加出现在利率处于创纪录低位的一段超长时期内。一旦利率开始再次上升,就会进一步压缩石油行业大规模资本出的能力,而这种能力是石油行业保持供应不断增加所必需的。Of course, the diplomatic breakthrough achieved with Iran over the weekend could provide some short-term relief to the market, as Iran’s exports could ultimately increase by up to 1.5m b/d if and when western sanctions are fully lifted. But this would not change the dynamics of the industry’s capex tmill in any fundamental sense.当然,不久前西方对伊朗的外交突破可能会让市场暂时松一口气,因为如果西方完全解除制裁,届时伊朗石油日出口量可能最终会增加150万桶之多。但这不会从根本上改变石油行业的资本出态势。The IEA estimates that global production of conventional crude oil from all currently producing fields will decline by 41m b/d by 2035 (an average of 1.9m b/d per year), so Iran’s potential increase of 1.5m b/d would compensate for just 10 months of natural decline in global conventional-crude output.IEA估计,到2035年,目前全球所有产油区的常规原油总日产量将减少4100万桶(平均每年减少190万桶),因此,伊朗可能增加的150万桶日出口量仅够弥补全球常规原油日产量头10个月的自然下滑。In short, behind the hubbub of market hype about a new age of oil abundance, the toil for oil is in fact more arduous and back-breaking than ever. This should worry everybody, because with the evidence suggesting that consumers are reluctant to pay much above 0 a barrel, it is an open question what happens next to the industry’s investment plans and hence, over time, to the supply of oil.简而言之,在市场大肆鼓吹石油充足新时代到来之际,生产石油事实上已变得比以往任何时候都更为艰难。所有人都应为此感到担忧,因为有据表明,消费者不愿为每桶超过110美元的油价买单,因此,石油行业投资的计划将何去何从,以及从长远来看对石油供应会产生怎样的影响,眼下都还是未知数。 /201312/267294。

  • Pity Chinese policy makers. They must deal with an unbalanced economy in more ways than one. China’s population ranges from the millions of rural poor to hundreds of entrepreneurial billionaires, with an expanding middle class in between. Activity growth is still dependent on fixed asset investment, and consumers, in spite of the hordes of Chinese shoppers worldwide, are not spending enough at home. Efforts to stamp out corruption are not helping.可怜的中国政策制定者们。他们得从不止一个方面应对不平衡的经济。中国人口中,既有数以百万计的农村贫困人口,也有数百个身价过亿的企业家,中间还有一批日益壮大的中产阶层。经济活动的增长仍依赖于固定资产投资,同时虽然全球都有中国购物者的身影,但他们在本国市场的消费不够。反腐败斗争也对提振消费没有帮助。And so it was that last week Premier Li Keqiang hinted that the 2014 gross domestic product growth target of 7.5 per cent – once unthinkably low – might be missed. August data confirmed a slowdown in industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment. Little is going right.中国总理李克强上周暗示,2014年可能无法实现7.5%(一度被认为低得难以想象)的国内生产总值(GDP)增长目标。8月的数据实了工业生产、零售销售和固定资产投资领域的放缓。几乎没有一项数据令人振奋。On Wednesday the People’s Bank of China appeared to save the day. A report on sina.com, a Chinese portal, leaked news of the central bank’s move to inject Rmb500bn (bn) into the top five Chinese banks. The liquidity will be available for three months. Analysts expect that the loans will be rolled over – this move is the first of a new wave of stimulus measures. Hong Kong-listed H shares, after dropping 6 per cent since Mr Li’s cautious outlook, bounced 1.5 per cent in relief.周三,中国人民似乎出台了措施,出手救市。中国门户网站新浪网(sina.com)上的一篇报道透露,央行将向中国五大注入5000亿元人民币(合810亿美元)流动性,期限为3个月(中国人民拒绝实此事——编者注)。分析者预计,这批贷款将被滚转——此举是新一轮刺激的首个动作。香港上市的H股在李克强发布谨慎的经济预测后下跌6%,现在如释重负反弹1.5%。But in spite of this joyful jump from financial instruments, more stimulus is not necessarily a good thing for China. It perpetuates the reliance on low-grade means of pumping up growth. And it is not sustainable. China wants markets to play a more decisive role in the economy. It knows that freer markets are necessary to aid rebalancing.然而,虽然金融工具出现喜人涨势,更多的刺激对中国未必是好事。它延续了对促进经济增长的低质量手段的依赖,而且是不可持续的。中国希望市场在经济中扮演更为决定性的角色。它知道更自由的市场对推动再平衡是必要的。So maybe the market is wrong. In two weeks, China celebrates national holidays. Its citizens get on the road for one of the largest annual human migrations. Shops have Golden Week sales. The demand for cash jumps. So the PBOC’s move may just be as short-term as the three-month tenor implies. Craftily, with this manoeuvre, China does not need to commit either way.也许市场反应是错的。两周后,中国将迎来国庆假期。中国人将踏上路途,进行每年最壮观的人类迁徙之一。商店将展开黄金周促销活动。对现金的需求猛增。所以,中国央行此举可能是临时性的,就像3个月期限所暗示的那样。中国官方此举巧妙避免了在刺激和不刺激之间的任何一方面作出承诺。 /201409/329623。
  • The 11 fathers of Asia: 800 million modern men are descended from a handful of ancient leaders - including Genghis Khan研究称8亿亚洲人来自11名共同祖先More than 800 million men living today are descended from just eleven men, including the ruthless Mongolian leader Genghis Khan, according to new research.最新研究表明,残酷的蒙古首领成吉思汗等11人在今天有8亿后代。Geneticists have been able to find eleven distinctive sequences in Y-chromosomes - the chunk of DNA that is only carried by men - that are persistent in modern populations in Asia.  基因学家发现,现代亚洲人中,只有男性才拥有的Y染色体有11种互不相同的序列。  By systematically analysing the DNA of more than 5,000 men, they have been able to trace these male lineages to their approximate #39;founding fathers#39;.通过对5000多名男子的DNA进行系统分析,基因学家能够追溯到他们的男性祖先。  They found that along with Khan, who is reputed to have sired hundreds of children as his hoards cut a swathe across much of Asia, they traced ten other lineages.他们一共找到11种血统,其中包括成吉思汗的--他几乎横扫整个亚洲,留下许多子孙。  They found that 37.8 per cent of the 5,000 men they tested belonged to one of these eleven lineages.他们发现,5000名男性中的37.8%都有这11种血统之一。If this is reflected in the entire Asian population, then it could mean around 830 million men living in Asia currently owe their Y-chromosomes to one of these eleven men.这一点反映了整个亚洲的人口状况,可能表明约8亿3千万亚洲男性都从这11位祖先中的某一位那里继承了Y染色体。  Among them is a lineage that has previously been attributed to a Chinese ruler called Giocangga, who died in 1583 and whose grandson founded the Qing Dynasty that ruled China between 1644 and 1912.  其中的一种血统曾被认为来自中国酋长觉昌安。他卒于1583年,孙子是清朝(统治期1644-1912)的建立者。  Giocangga is thought to have had many children with his wives and concubines and is the direct male ancestor of more than 1.5 million men.  人们认为觉昌安和他的妻妾生了许多孩子,是150万人的直系男性祖先。  The researchers also found that another of the lineages appears to have population clusters that are concentrated along the Silk Road trading route and date back to around 850AD.研究人员发现另一种血统的持有者集中在丝绸之路一带。这种血统可以上溯到公元850年左右。  This suggests they may have their origins among the powerful rulers who dominated the steppes where the route passed - the Khitan, Tangut Xia, Kara-Khitan and Mongol empires.  这表明他们的祖先可能是契丹、西夏、西辽、蒙古等丝绸之路沿途各国的统治者。  The researchers suggest that Abaoji, Emperor Taizu of Liao and the Great Khan of the Khitans, who died in 926AD in the Khitan area of China, is a possible candidate for the father of this lineage.研究人员认为公元926年去世的契丹大可汗辽太祖阿保机有可能是这条血脉的始祖。 /201507/384040。
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